TOKYO - In 2025, all members of the postwar baby boomer generation will reach the age of 75 or older, becoming what is categorized as late-stage elderly. The sudden surge in people requiring care has raised concerns over the so-called "2025 Problem," posing a serious challenge to caregiving services.
The baby boomer generation, born during the first postwar baby boom and known for its active involvement in student movements, numbers just under six million.
By 2025, this entire demographic will have entered the late-stage elderly group, further accelerating the pace of aging in society. As a result, the number of people needing care is expected to increase sharply, intensifying the existing shortage of caregiving staff and raising fears that essential services may become inaccessible.
Professor Yuki Yasuhiro of Shukutoku University warns, "There is a possibility that from 2025 onward, we may see the start of what could be described as 'care collapse.'"
According to estimates from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, 2.4 million caregiving personnel will be required by fiscal 2026, meaning an annual increase of around 63,000 workers will be necessary.
However, despite this urgent need, the number of caregivers in 2023, as reported by the ministry last month, has declined for the first time since the launch of the national long-term care insurance system in 2000. The primary reason cited for this decline is the relatively low wages compared to other industries.
Professor Yuki explains, "The wage hikes in other industries are significantly higher, resulting in an even greater wage disparity for caregiving staff. We need to raise caregiver wages to match the levels of other industries."
Furthermore, as the number of people requiring care continues to grow, so will the number of "business carers"—employees who juggle work while caring for family members. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry predicts that the number of such carers will exceed three million this year.
Since April, companies have been legally required to inform employees about support measures for balancing work and caregiving, such as caregiving leave. This new regulation aims to encourage corporate involvement in addressing the caregiving issue. The number of people needing care is expected to continue rising, with the peak projected around 2040.
Professor Yuki stresses, "If we don't improve the caregiving environment between 2035 and 2040, Japan's economy and society will face severe difficulties. People in their 50s and 60s will struggle with caregiving responsibilities for their aging parents, leading to an era where many will be unable to continue working."
The "2025 Problem" highlights the urgent need for societal transformation to address this growing caregiving crisis.
Source: TBS
