AUTOS

By Larry E. Hall

Volkswagen Touareg Hybrid

Volkswagen, along with other European auto companies, has long proclaimed diesels as a better green strategy than hybridization. True, diesels are efficient and practical, but in the U.S., they have a reputation of being noisy and smelly. VW has worked hard to overcome that image with cars like the Jetta TDI but now are apparently changing direction (although they still like diesels).

During a press conference last week at its Electronics Research Lab in Palo Alto, California, Volkswagen chairman Dr. Martin Winterkorn repeated the company's electrified slogan: “In the future, the heart of Volkswagen will also beat with electricity.” And in an opaque reference to the original Beetle, Winterkorn told the gathered media that “Volkswagen is working on the electric car for everyone.” (We'll report on VW's electric car strategy on PluginCars.com later today.) He added that hybrid and electric vehicles will account for three percent of the German carmaker's global sales by 2018.

The Roadmap

Winterkorn concluded his remarks by laying out the company's roadmap for hybrid and electric vehicle introductions into the United States. First up is the 2011 Touareg Hybrid, which launches later this year.

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The Porsche 918 Spyder plug-in hybrid debuted in Geneva.

Porsche AG's supervisory board has voted to move forward with production on the Porsche 918 Spyder, which first turned heads at March's Geneva Auto Show. The plug-in hybrid supercar has a top speed of nearly 199 mph, can accelerate from 0 to 62 in just 3.2 seconds, and comes with an astounding $650,000 price tag. The high-end carmaker says that it has received 2,000 non-binding submissions of interest for the 918—more than twice the required level of interest for the board to vote on production of a new vehicle.

The Spyder's two drivetrains provide a total of 718 hp, with 218 hp coming from a pair of 160kW electric motors and the other 500 coming from a 3.4 liter V8 engine. One motor will be mounted to each axis, with the V8 powering just the rear wheels. The electric drivetrain will provide about 16 miles of pure electric range when the vehicle's fluid-cooled lithium ion battery is fully charged—similar to Toyota's Prius plug-in hybrid.

Like the Prius, the Nissan LEAF and other more modestly priced plug-ins, the 918 will come with a dashboard computerized navigation system that tells drivers how far they can go on all-electric power and where the closest public charging station is.

Porsche says that the car will produce just 79g/km of emissions and get 78 miles to the gallon. (Of course, the method for calculating official fuel economy numbers for a plug-in hybrid remains a major point of contention within the industry and among regulators.) Since the 918 has four distinct modes—with each providing varying levels of performance and fuel economy—calculating its fuel efficiency is an even more complicated task. E-Drive Mode is the most efficient, with Race Hybrid Mode providing the gaudiest power numbers. In Race Hybrid Mode, the electric motors are used only for short bursts of additional passing power—meaning that fuel efficiency numbers plummet.

The Spyder isn't the only hybrid that Porsche is preparing for release in the near future. The Cayenne S hybrid SUV will be released in the coming months, with Panamera S sedan following next year. Both will be equipped with V6 engines and nickel metal hydride batteries, with the Cayenne yielding 25 mpg and the Panamera nearly 28 mpg.

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General Motors announced today that the Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid will be offered for sale at $41,000, or for a surprisingly low monthly lease cost of $350 per month (with a $2,500 initial payment.) The sticker price for the Volt is $8,200 higher than that of the $32,800 all-electric Nissan LEAF—though the two vehicles' lease prices are virtually identical.

The Volt's $41,000 sticker cost doesn't actually reflect what early buyers will pay for the car—the federal government is subsidizing the price of both it and the LEAF to the tune of $7,500. That brings real price of the Volt down to $33,500. For California drivers in particular though, the economic attractiveness of buying a LEAF versus a Volt is even stronger—the Volt plug-in hybrid isn't eligible for the state's $3,000 Advanced Technology-Partial Zero Emissions Vehicle rebate for plug-in hybrids.

When Does a $41,000 Car Cost the Same as a $32,000 Car?

GM says that the apparent disparity between the Volt's sticker and lease prices is a reflection of the company's calculation that the vehicle will maintain a very high residual value after three years—significantly higher than that of the LEAF. Even if that is the case, it's probably more than just a coincidence that the result of that calculation was a monthly lease that matches up so closely to the LEAF's.

But there also seems to be bit of a hitch in GM's residual value logic. If electric vehicle incentives are still being offered three years from now, will any original lessees be interested in buying their used Volt when they can get a brand new plug-in for almost the same price?

Remember, the $7,500 federal credit only applies to new vehicles, and is subtracted from the monthly payment of the original lease. That means that whether or not the lessee decides to purchase the car at the end of 36 months, the Volt will effectively come full circle—from a $41,000 car that leases for the price of a $32,000 car, to a used car that resells for the price of a $41,000 car.

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AFS Trinity claims that its ultracapacitor technologies could push the mileage of a small plug-in hybrid SUV to 150 mpg.

AFS Trinity Power Corporation today announced that it has been awarded a patent for its Extreme Hybrid drive train that makes ultracapacitors a critical part of plug-in hybrid strategy. For the last few years, AFS Trinity has claimed that using ultracaps could push the mileage of a small SUV to 150 mpg.

Capacitors store only small amounts of electricity but can provide bursts of power—reducing strain on hybrid batteries primarily designed to store large amounts of energy. Think of capacitors as a way to provide instant oomph. In fact, F1 has been using something similar—an energy-saving device known as Kinetic Energy Recover Systems—for a few years. The benefit of ultracapicators for everyday hybrids is the ability to use smaller, less expensive battery packs—especially on plug-in hybrids—and to extend battery durability and performance.

The AFT Trinity patent provides broad protection for its technology, covering the use of ultracapacitors, flywheels, and “power batteries” used to protect the main energy storage battery bank.

“By seamlessly integrating ultra-capacitors into the electronic propulsion system of plug-ins, the AFS Trinity system eliminates peak electric loads on the battery caused by the frequent acceleration and braking events that are part of everyday driving,” wrote AFS Trinity Chief Executive Officer Edward W. Furia, in a letter to federal legislators. “This innovation allows plug-ins to travel farther on smaller, less-expensive lithium-ion batteries, while also increasing the useful life of the batteries.” Furia is advocating that government incentives should support power-based systems, not just vehicles like the Chevy Volt that have large battery packs.

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Before an impassioned plea from former Vice President Al Gore, the Obama Administration was reportedly ready to throw in the towel on climate legislation as early as last summer.

The White House and leading Democrats in the Senate have abandoned all efforts to pass comprehensive climate legislation this year. Senate leaders are said to be drafting a pared down energy bill that would create a handful of new incentives and programs but do nothing to cap greenhouse gas emissions.

Highlights of the limited bill include $5 billion dollars for energy-saving home retrofitting incentives, $4.1 billion in compressed natural gas vehicle incentives, expanded land and water conservation measures, and new reforms aimed at fixing the Department of the Interior's shameful record on offshore drilling oversight. The legislation would also increase the cap on oil spill liability from $75 million to $10 billion.

No Mention of Electric Vehicles or Biofuels

What's more notable about the legislation is what's missing. In addition to cap and trade, there is no mention of hybrid or electric vehicle incentives, clean energy financing or renewable energy targets. Also absent is an extension of the ethanol subsidies that are scheduled to expire at the end of this year.

Both EVs and ethanol could be addressed in separate measures or could be folded into the bill at a later date. The Promoting Electric Vehicles Act of 2010—which would allocate $6 billion for plug-in cars—was passed out of committee last week, while the House Ways and Means Committee is considering extending ethanol subsidies, but cutting them from $0.45 to $0.36 per gallon.

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Ford today announced that its new 2011 Lincoln MKZ Hybrid will be priced at $35,180—exactly the same as the standard gasoline version.

The MKZ Hybrid is a luxury variant of the 2011 Ford Fusion Hybrid, which is priced at $28,825. Both vehicles have a 156-horsepower 2.5-liter four-cylinder coupled with an electric motor to produce a total 191 horsepower, and deliver fuel-economy ratings of 41 mpg in the city and 36 on the highway.

This is the second major sign in the past week that hybrids are headed to the heart of the mainstream market. The other news is that Honda, starting next year, will only offer the hybrid version of the Honda Civic in Japan, and will stop selling the gas-powered Civic in the company's domestic market.

Kiss Hybrid Premium Goodbye

The consistent criticism levied against hybrids is their additional cost compared to similar conventional vehicles. Hybrid critics acknowledge that gas-electric cars save gas, but they say the additional cost—in some cases, thousands of dollars more—means that consumers will not recoup the premium during their ownership period. That argument is erased if the hybrid version is offered at the same price as the conventional gas-powered car—or if the premium is only a couple hundred dollars. The hybrid premium argument is similarly erased if a popular high-volume vehicle is only offered as a hybrid.

James Bell, executive market analyst for Kelley Blue Book, told Detroit News, "It's very big news and I give Ford thumbs up for making it happen...The price difference is being washed away."

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The Joint Center for Artificial Photosynthesis is one of three Energy Innovation Hubs that DOE secretary Steven Chu will create for advanced energy research.

The Department of Energy has awarded a $122 million grant to a team of researchers based out of the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab to develop an efficient process for creating liquid fuel from sunlight. The process would essentially create artificial photosynthesis, but instead of converting sunlight and carbon dioxide into oxygen and sugar like plants do, researchers will create oxygen and hydrocarbons—the essential component of fuel used in combustion engines.

The potential applications of sunlight-to-fuel technology include carbon capture techniques that could allow factories and power plants to convert their carbon emissions into combustible fuel and oxygen on-site. Of course, implementation of any such method is anything but certain and years—if not decades—down the road.

Artificial photosynthesis is not a new idea, though issues of cost, scaling and efficiency have plagued the technology and prevented any serious attempts to move it out of the laboratory. The Joint Center for Artificial Photosynthesis hopes to tackle these problems by using cobalt oxide nanocrystals as a catalyst in the photooxidation process. The nanocrystals are smaller and faster than other materials that have been used in artificial photosynthesis research, allowing for a much more efficient absorption of photons. Cobalt oxide is also cheap and abundant, whereas some of the other catalysts that have been experimented on are among the rarest and most expensive metals on earth.

Another challenge the team hopes to overcome is eliminating the intermediary processes that drive up costs and prevent viability. The JCAP will attempt to directly create a liquid fuel that doesn't need to be refined any further. In the past, researchers have been able to use solar energy to produce methane and other other gases that would then need to be liquified and refined in order to be used as fuel. Those processes greatly multiply the cost of production.

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In 1988, the United States government began allowing carmakers to use E85 flex-fuel vehicles—which run on a blend of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline—to help meet Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards. For each mile-per-gallon a flex-fuel equipped vehicle is theoretically capable of getting from ethanol, the government said it would add to the vehicle's total fuel efficiency rating. For example, an E85 light duty truck that averages 13 mpg is currently credited with about a 23 mpg rating.

What the credits essentially do is help automakers cook their fuel economy books by producing hundreds of thousands of flex-fuel vehicles that will likely never even use E85—all the while getting credit for decreasing the amount of gasoline used by their fleet.

When gas prices are low, there is often virtually no economic incentive for drivers to fill their cars and trucks with ethanol. What's more, currently only about 2,500 of the 162,000 gas stations in the United States actually offer E85—and most of those are located in the Midwest. This means that many drivers of flex-fuel vehicles have no chance of using the fuel to significantly cut their petroleum consumption—even if they wanted to.

The End is Near?

The federal government's special affinity for ethanol dates back decades, but it may be coming to an end soon. The E85 CAFE credits are scheduled to end in 2016, and a slew of other ethanol production and blending incentives have either expired or are scheduled to expire at the end of 2010.

Despite this, automakers say they're on track to follow through with their promise to double production on flex-fuel vehicles over 2006 levels. General Motors, Ford and Chrysler say that by the end of the year they will be prepared to collectively produce 1.4 million flex fuel vehicles per year, beginning in 2011. By 2012, American automakers say that half of the vehicles they make will be flex-fuel-capable.

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Smaller engines, turbo-charging, and lighter weight add up to big fuel economy gains, even without a hybrid system.

There was a time when automakers could meet fuel efficiency standards by shifting to smaller cars. No longer. Thanks to the so-called “footprint formula” used to establish higher fuel efficiency standards, automakers will need to make big gains in all segments in order to meet tougher efficiency levels starting in 2012. That’s why small cars like the gas-powered Honda Fit, which is rated at 35 MPG on the highway, might be offered as the Honda Fit Hybrid to push the MPG even higher. At the same time, full-line carmakers, using every efficiency trick in the book, will make their larger vehicles go further on a gallon of gas.

Case in point: The next-generation Ford Explorer, once the poster child for SUV-obsessed America, will move to a car-like unibody construction and add an EcoBoost turbocharged four-cylinder engine and six-speed automatic transmission as its standard powertrain. As a result, the 2011 Ford Explorer should turn in combined highway-city fuel economy above 20 MPG.

Creativity is the key to improving efficiency. Ford has gone through the entire vehicle and put it on a weight-reduction program, using lightweight steel, aluminum and composites to drop weight—and thus maintained its heavier predecessor’s performance with a smaller powerplant.

Other factors boosting the fuel economy are twin independent variable camshaft timing, electric power-assisted steering, advanced battery management, fast engine warm-up and aggressive deceleration fuel shutoff. The Explorer also features Ford's first U.S.-application of a variable-displacement air conditioning compressor that reduces parasitic engine drag. This year's 4.0-liter V6 Explorer is EPA-rated at 14 MPG city and 20 MPG on the highway. A 30 percent improvement would mean the 2011 2.0-liter EcoBoost model should deliver about 18 MPG in the city and 26 MPG on the highway. The EPA has not yet certified official fuel economy numbers.

Big Sellers Matter

The current Explorer's seven-passenger capacity and towing abilities are expected to be maintained in the new models. Before you start thinking the Explorer’s off-road capabilities might be compromised by the move to unibody construction, note that the Jeep Grand Cherokee—which has impeccable off-road credentials—has featured a similar structure throughout its modern life.

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Over the next half century, international air travel is expected to as much as triple. But with more flights and more flyers comes a rising environmental and consumer cost to flying.

So what's being done to make air travel more efficient? In the short run, the answer is actually building larger aircraft. The Airbus 380, which is the largest passenger airliner in the world, has actually managed to bring down per passenger fuel use by 20 percent compared to a 747 simply by seating more flyers. The plane is also capable of running on a biofuel blend—which may or may not be impressive depending upon your opinions about biofuels.

In the longer term though, there numerous hybrid and electric airplane concepts that could provide possible alternatives to traditional internal combustion aircraft. Boeing recently presented a design called the SUGAR Volt to NASA as part of the N+3 initiative, whose goal it is to "overcome significant performance and environmental challenges or the benefit of the general public."

Boeing's SUGAR Volt could yield as much as a 70 percent increase in fuel economy.

The SUGAR Volt is in many ways similar to hybrid vehicle. Twin jet engines are used to power electric motors that in turn supplement those engines, yielding as much as a 70 percent increase in fuel economy. But the principle at play here isn't regenerative braking.

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