Japan Stocks News and Analysis from Seeking Alpha
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The Dollar and Asia: Time for a Reversal?
(May 7)
Macro Man submits:
Is the worm turning, if ever so slightly, for the dollar? Regular readers will recall that last summer, Macro Man began to contemplate the notion that aggressive Fed easing would generate a "dollar down bubble."
The view played out as well as possibly could have been expected, in
both the currency and the commodity space; Macro Man's only regret is
that he was hors de marche
when the most impulsive breakdown in the dollar occurred. And yet he
now finds himself less tactically bearish of the buck than he's been
since August of last year.
Recent data from Europe suggests that
some of the pain of tighter credit is starting to spread. While there
is still no assurance that the ECB will act in the near or even medium
term to cut rates, it seems clear that the endgame will be an ECB rate
cut. That, combined with the nosebleed valuations of EUR/USD (and many
of its closely correlated peers), makes dollar shorts less attractive
at the moment. When when considers that Vo...
Japanese Tech Stock Weekly Summary (4/28-5/4)
(May 6)
The following is excerpted from IRG's weekly stock report:
? ? ?
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Nikkei Weekly Outlook: Post-Golden Week Rally in Store?
(May 5)
What to watch: Monday and Tuesday, May 5-6: Nothing
? TSE closed (trading resumes Wednesday); Earnings season also resumes;
Friday, May 9: Index of Business Conditions (Cabinet Office)
Ongoing: As always, external factors will impact
domestic equities; however at present, conditions seem favorable given
the weakening yen (now around ¥105/$1) and an accommodative Fed on all
fronts. Concurrently, that the Japanese government is protectionist or
that the Bank of Japan is helpless seems to be beside the point.
Meantime, the ongoing question is whether Japanese stocks represent
true value or instead, if the apparent value is merely an unobtainable
mirage for gaijin investors.
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Japan Investing Remains an Enigma
(May 4)
IndexUniverse submits:
By Murray Coleman
Despite ongoing political turmoil, the Japanese Nikkei average is rallying, surging nearly 20% since mid-March.
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A Few Reasons to Buy Yen
(May 1)
Jake Berzon submits:
In a continuing theme of diversifying my cash holdings into currencies other than the U.S dollar, I used the opportunity of the Yen correcting about 8% over the past 2 weeks to buy into CurrencyShares Yen ETF (FXY) at $95.39. FXY is the easiest, lowest cost and most liquid instrument that I know of for virtually converting the U.S dollar into Japanese Yen. FXY has current support at around $95 per trust share.
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Japanese Tech Stock Weekly Summary (4/21-27)
(Apr 29)
The following is excerpted from IRG's weekly stock report:
Hardware
Sony Corp.'s (SNE) videogame unit delayed for the second time the release of its much-anticipated
virtual-community service for the PlayStation 3, showing the extra care it is taking in vetting
products as demand for the videogame console is increasing. The 3-D service called Home,
which originally was expected to be sold starting last year, now is expected to be available in the fall,
the company said. The service will let users create avatar characters, decorate homes and interact with
other users in a virtual world. As more people have access to faster Internet connections, online
communities like those that allow players to socialize with one another in addition to playing games
have grown popular in recent years. They are considered an important part of the game-playing
experience.
Fujitsu (FJTSY.PK) has launched a series of 320GB 2.5-inch hard disk drives containing automatic
hardware-based encr...
Escaping Japan's Potential Value Trap
(Apr 28)
Escaping Japan's potential value trap requires good corporate governance.
The Nikkei 225 has already rebounded some 18% from March 17
lows. While the economic and profit environment continues to
deteriorate, foreign investors, the major drivers of Japanese stock
prices, have again returned as net buyers from April. With any luck,
the Nikkei 225 could see a bullish ?golden cross? with the 13-week MA
moving above the 26-week MA, as the Nikkei 225 has moved above its
13-week MA.This would completely negate our bearish call of NK
225 downside to 10,000 and a JPY/USD run to JPY80 that was predicated
on a continued deepening of the credit crisis, which for now does not
appear to be the case. The ?luck? that the Nikkei 225 would need is, a)
a weaker trend in JPY, b) falling/stable oil prices, and c) a shallow
US/global recession.Since Japan does not have the growth
potential of its BRICs neighbors, the main price driver is expected to
be value, not growth. To avoid becoming a mere value tr...
What US Stagflation Means for Asian Markets
(Apr 28)
Dr Enzio von Pfeil submits:
Excerpts from Dr. Enzio von Pfeil's appearance on CNBC:
With talk of a looming recession in the US, how are Asian economies dealing with this? Is decoupling happening?Decoupling is wishful thinking; re-coupling is what is happening. Things just are not so 'different' this time around!On
a psychological level, when the U.S. market tumbles, everyone around
the world gets nervous - all the more so with the internet now welding
everyone's market knowledge together. This nervousness translates into
a dampened shopping mood, which stems primarily from the female
subconscious.On a real economy level, when the U.S. consumer
tightens her belt, exports from Asia slow down. So those people
previously employed in Asian exporting jobs get laid off. So their
consumption falls. This dampened consumption now starts affecting
domestic demand and the jobs of people employed in 'domestic'
industries producing goods and services for purely domestic consumption.Of
course, mu...
Nikkei Weekly Outlook: Recovery of 14,000 Level in Sight
(Apr 28)
What to watch: Earnings reporting continues; JGB
activity (unprecedented ?????????? (circuit breaker) action last
Friday; rising yields but equity yields still attractive to the
10-year); Tues./Wed., April 29 -30: FOMC rate decision meeting; Wed.,
April 30: Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy meeting; March -
Industrial production; March - New housing starts; March - Unemployment
and Ratio of Job Offers to Applicants; March - Household income and
expenditure survey; U.S. Q1 GDP; Thurs., May 1: April - New auto sales;
Fri., May 2: U.S. April - Unemployment and U.S. nonfarm payrolls
Ongoing: External factors, particularly U.S.
earnings and economic data (see above) to influence domestic stocks;
record commodities vs. weakening yen [¥104.5/$1 on Friday]
(select potential factors at play: dollar rally; end to Fed cuts near;
BoJ impotency; Samurai bond issues; Golden Week effect); GoJ selective
protectionism (Japanese government despises hedge funds and private
equity, characterizing the...
Yen Outlook: Stronger on Japanese Economy or Weaker on Carry Trade Comeback?
(Apr 27)
The Japanese yen has gained close to 12% over the last year, and from June 2007 to March 2008 it gained close to 24% or so going from 125 per US dollar to touching 95 Yen per dollar. The key question is whether it keeps this momentum up, or whether it?s now time to bet against this strength?
Well in my opinion, a big part of this strength can be attributed to:
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