TOKYO - The Japanese government has released an updated damage forecast for a potential Nankai Trough megaquake, estimating that up to 298,000 people could die in the worst-case scenario. This projection reflects a slight reduction from the previous estimate of 332,000 deaths made 13 years ago.
While this decrease suggests some progress in disaster preparedness, the overall scale of potential devastation remains immense. The update was not based on a new understanding of the earthquake’s nature, but rather on recent societal and environmental changes, as well as improved knowledge of secondary risks such as fire and post-disaster conditions.
One notable change in the forecast is the inclusion of disaster-related deaths—those who survive the quake and tsunami but later die due to poor evacuation shelter conditions or health complications. These deaths, seen prominently during the Noto Peninsula earthquake, are now projected to reach up to 52,000, which is about 13 times more than the number recorded during the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. This addition highlights the critical importance of improving post-disaster care, including the living environment in shelters, which has seen little improvement since the Great Hanshin Earthquake.
Regionally, the number of projected deaths in Wakayama Prefecture has declined by around 15,000, reflecting the impact of mitigation efforts over the past decade. However, in areas such as Osaka and Kyoto, projected fatalities have increased, particularly due to the anticipated rise in fire-related deaths. This shift emphasizes the importance of fire prevention measures alongside tsunami readiness, as the new forecast suggests that fire risk is now a major concern in heavily populated urban areas following a quake.
Another significant aspect of the revised forecast is its emphasis on individual preparedness. Experts found that public behavior can greatly influence the scale of disaster outcomes. If 70 percent of residents evacuate promptly after the initial tremors, the death toll could be drastically reduced compared to a situation where only 20 percent take immediate action. Moreover, installing automatic circuit breakers that shut off power during an earthquake could lower the risk of fires caused by the restoration of electricity after the shaking ends.
Sato, the disaster reporter explaining the new forecast, stressed that the purpose of this projection is not to spread fear, but to provoke serious personal reflection. The expert committee that developed the estimate sent a strong message: the era of relying solely on national or local government measures has passed. Citizens must now take disaster preparedness into their own hands and act proactively. Factors such as the increasing number of foreign visitors, the rise of cashless transactions, and a decline in essential workers like healthcare professionals further complicate the response capacity in a real disaster.
Ultimately, the new damage forecast serves as both a warning and a call to action. It urges individuals to think ahead about what steps they can take to protect themselves and avoid future regret. The enormity of the projected loss is not meant to intimidate, but to underscore the urgent need for both systemic reforms and personal responsibility.
Source: YOMIURI
