Apr 29 (60 Minutes) - Japan's population has been shrinking for 15 years, with huge implications for the country’s economy, national defense, and culture. Now, policymakers are working to boost birth rates.
Japan’s population is shrinking at a pace unmatched by most other developed nations, despite the global population having recently passed 8 billion. Since peaking at 128 million in 2008, Japan’s population has fallen for 15 consecutive years and is projected to be cut in half by the end of this century. The consequences are vast, touching nearly every sector—economy, healthcare, education, housing, national defense, immigration, and cultural identity. Unlike interest or inflation rates, birthrates are difficult for governments to control, and Japan is now grappling with one of the most profound demographic shifts in modern history.
The village of Ichino in Shiga Prefecture, where dolls outnumber residents, offers a poignant example. Local artisan Shinichi Moriyama populates the quiet town with lifelike puppets to counter its fading human presence. The village’s population is under 50, and even that number may soon fall further. Moriyama continues crafting dolls, but worries about who will remain to appreciate them.
Nationwide, the trends are equally stark. Japan has one of the world’s longest life expectancies—85 years—and its capital Tokyo is the world’s largest city. Yet last year, the country recorded nearly twice as many deaths as births, with a net loss of almost one million people. The market for adult diapers has now overtaken that of baby diapers, and former Minister Taro Kono, a prominent political figure, warns that Japan’s very social fabric and economic stability are at risk. The aging population has already impacted the military, which recruited only half its target last year.
Outside of Africa, most countries are now seeing slowing or declining populations. Even in the U.S., fertility rates are at historic lows. But Japan may be the world’s most advanced case, a preview of where many nations are headed. Every sector of society, including government itself, suffers from labor shortages. While automation and AI could help ease some pressures, Kono notes Japan has been slow to invest in these technologies. Immigration is another possible solution, but cultural homogeneity and societal reluctance remain barriers.
Several root causes compound the crisis. Greater workforce participation among women has coincided with punishing work culture and outdated gender roles, making it hard for young couples to start families. Traditional practices like arranged marriage have faded, and women now often out-earn their male counterparts, disrupting long-held expectations. In 2023, fewer than 500,000 couples married—the lowest number since records began in 1917.
A growing culture of solitude exacerbates the issue. Single-person dining, karaoke, and even weddings have become common. Relationships with fictional characters, supported by increasingly sophisticated AI and robotics, have gained traction. Nearly half of unmarried millennials in Japan report having no sexual experience, highlighting a deepening disconnection.
Some local governments are responding. Tokyo has launched its own AI-powered matchmaking service, which has attracted more users than expected, and is experimenting with a four-day workweek to support working mothers. Governor Yuriko Koike believes policies must evolve beyond economic stimulus to directly support family life. But results so far have been disappointing—the total fertility rate for 2024 reached a new record low.
Former Tokyo lawyer and now parliamentarian Hanako Okata argues that Japan’s demographic future hinges not on apps or shorter workweeks, but on rethinking the urban-centric lifestyle. She left Tokyo for her hometown in Aomori, where she is pushing for job creation in rural areas to attract young people and encourage family formation. At a local middle school built for 600 students but now serving only a third of that, the effects of depopulation are clear.
Okata believes rural revitalization offers hope. The slower pace of life and stronger community ties may encourage couples to have children. Families like the Katos have made the move, exchanging Tokyo’s bustle for a more traditional life in Ichino. Their son, Kornoske, was the first baby born there in over 20 years. They grow vegetables, make toys, and hope other families will join them.
Source: 60 Minutes
