TOKYO - The departure of Komeito from the ruling coalition has thrown Japan’s political landscape into deeper uncertainty, as attention now turns to the prime minister selection vote expected to take place in the Diet next week. With the Liberal Democratic Party’s new president Takaichi aiming for the top post, the outcome will hinge on shifting alliances and last-minute negotiations among rival parties.
The extraordinary Diet session is expected to convene on October 21st, though the precise date of the leadership vote remains unclear. Opposition parties — the Constitutional Democratic Party, Nippon Ishin no Kai, and the Democratic Party for the People — held a joint meeting earlier this week, while Takaichi also met separately with leaders of the three parties. Meanwhile, the LDP has begun coalition talks with Ishin, signaling an escalation in political maneuvering.
Political editor Naoya Yoshiyoshino of the Nikkei, who specializes in domestic politics, notes that the landscape has shifted dramatically since the opposition meeting and Takaichi’s individual talks with party leaders. “Until now, the outcome of the prime minister vote was uncertain,” he said. “But with the LDP and Ishin signaling readiness for policy cooperation, the momentum has moved toward a Takaichi-led government.”
A potential LDP-Ishin alliance would command 231 seats — just two short of a majority — significantly improving Takaichi’s chances. Yoshiyoshino explained that the LDP’s immediate priority is to secure votes for Takaichi in the prime minister selection, after which formal coalition talks would follow. Should Ishin support Takaichi, the resulting government could include Ishin lawmakers as ministers, deputy ministers, or parliamentary secretaries, effectively forming a coalition cabinet.
Three main scenarios have been discussed: a Takaichi-led government backed by LDP and Ishin, an opposition coalition forming its own government, or a deadlock leading to prolonged negotiations. However, the momentum has shifted toward the first scenario, with the opposition alliance losing steam.
One reason for the opposition’s struggles, according to Yoshiyoshino, is a perceived lack of resolve from Tada, the opposition leader considered the most likely challenger. While Tada has repeatedly declared his readiness to become prime minister, senior ruling party figures question his commitment. “In politics, power is not won by words but by decisive action,” Yoshiyoshino said. “Takaichi has demonstrated that determination more convincingly.”
With just days remaining before the Diet convenes, the political situation remains fluid, but the tide appears to be turning in favor of Takaichi. The final outcome, however, will depend on whether he can secure Ishin’s formal support and rally enough votes to claim Japan’s highest political office.
Source: テレ東BIZ
