TOKYO - Typhoon No. 18 (Soudelor) formed near the Truk Islands on August 19 and is forecast to strengthen as it gradually turns northwest, potentially approaching the Ogasawara Islands before moving toward Okinawa or the Pacific coast of western Japan.
As of 9 p.m. on August 19, the typhoon was located near the Truk Islands and moving northwest at about 15 kilometers per hour. Its central atmospheric pressure was 996 hectopascals, with maximum sustained winds of 20 meters per second and maximum gusts of 30 meters per second.
The storm is expected to strengthen steadily and reach "very strong" intensity by 9 p.m. on August 22, when its central pressure is forecast to fall to around 950 hectopascals.
It is then expected to continue northwest toward waters near the Ogasawara Islands while maintaining that intensity.
By 9 p.m. on August 24, the typhoon is forecast to remain very strong, with maximum sustained winds of 45 meters per second and maximum gusts of 60 meters per second.
Conditions along its projected path are highly favorable for further development. Sea surface temperatures are around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius, providing a large supply of heat energy to the storm.
Warm water also extends well below the ocean surface. In some areas, water temperatures of at least 26 degrees Celsius extend to depths of more than 100 meters, while even in other sections such temperatures reach depths of around 60 meters.
This deep reservoir of warm water means that even as the typhoon churns and mixes the ocean, cooler water is less likely to rise sufficiently to weaken the storm, allowing it to continue intensifying and retain its strength.
Atmospheric conditions are also expected to favor development. Vertical wind shear along the projected route is relatively weak, meaning there is little difference in wind speed and direction between lower and higher levels of the atmosphere. Such conditions make it easier for a typhoon to maintain its organized structure and continue strengthening.
Considerable uncertainty remains over the storm's eventual track. By August 24, the forecast circle has a radius of about 400 kilometers, giving it a diameter of roughly 800 kilometers.
Forecast simulations from different meteorological models continue to show some variation, but the storm could have a significant impact on areas around Okinawa depending on its eventual course.
People in the Ogasawara Islands, Okinawa and surrounding areas are being advised to closely monitor the latest forecasts as the typhoon develops.
Source: ウェザーニュース
