TOKYO - A tropical depression developing near the Chuuk Islands is expected to become a typhoon by the evening of August 19 before continuing to strengthen over unusually warm waters and reaching the vicinity of the Mariana Islands as a strong typhoon by August 23.
As of 9 p.m. on August 18, the tropical depression was moving slowly westward near the Chuuk Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 15 meters per second and maximum gusts of 23 meters per second.
The system is forecast to strengthen over the next 24 hours, with maximum sustained winds reaching 18 meters per second by 9 p.m. on August 19, at which point it is expected to be classified as a typhoon.
Ocean conditions along its projected path are favorable for further development. Sea surface temperatures are around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius, while warm water extends to considerable depths beneath the surface.
Ocean heat content, a measure of the amount of thermal energy stored in the upper ocean, is also high along the expected track. These conditions can provide a tropical cyclone with a continuing supply of energy even as winds churn the ocean surface.
The storm is therefore expected to continue intensifying after becoming a typhoon.
By 9 p.m. on August 23, it is forecast to reach the vicinity of the Mariana Islands with "strong" typhoon intensity.
Forecast uncertainty remains considerable, however. Numerical weather simulations produced by forecasting agencies around the world currently show significant differences in the storm's future track.
Further changes in both the strength and course of the developing system remain possible, making updated forecasts important as the storm evolves.
Source: ウェザーニュース
