Nov 04, 2024 (East Asia Forum) - The snap election for Japan’s Lower House on 27 October 2024 produced a hung parliament with no political party or coalition receiving a majority, throwing Japanese politics into uncertainty and potential political instability.
Japan’s long-time ruling coalition, led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior ally Komeito, suffered a crushing defeat in this election. Newly minted Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had called it soon after taking office in early October 2024, hoping to cash in on his honeymoon period and catch the unprepared opposition unawares.
Ishiba’s calculations backfired as voters registered their vote of no confidence in the LDP marred by a slush-fund scandal and the party’s unexplained connection to the Unification Church that had forced prime minister Fumio Kishida to resign in September 2024.
Ishiba’s promises to clean up and reform the party cut no ice with most voters. A general sense of apathy towards politics and pessimism prevails among voters, resulting in one of the lowest turnout rates since the end of the Second World War.
In the 465-member Lower House of Japan’s parliament, the LDP only secured 191 seats — 56 fewer than the 247 it held before the election. Komeito not only reduced its seats to 28, down from 32 seats, but its new leader, Keiichi Ishii, failed to retain his seat in the Lower House, illustrating the party’s waning electoral support and raising questions about its leader’s prospects.
The main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), won 148 seats. Although this is up 50 seats from the CDP’s pre-election strength of 98, it’s not enough to form a government in its own right. Another opposition party, the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), gained substantially by quadrupling its strength from seven to 28 seats. The Japan Innovation Party (JIP), with 38 seats, and the DPP, with 28 seats, will hold the key to forming the next government either in coalition with the LDP or the CDP.
Even after one of the LDP’s worst electoral performances, Ishiba did not stand down. Instead, he vowed to continue as prime minister, reform the party, and press ahead with his reform agenda. His political survival now depends on drawing support from some opposition parties besides Komeito. The most likely allies are the JIP and the DPP, both conservative stripes, although neither has yet committed to a coalition with the LDP.
A parliamentary vote to designate a new prime minister must occur within 30 days after an election. Whether Prime Minister Ishiba or the largest opposition party leader, the DPJ’s Yoshihide Noda, wins the race is unclear at this stage. Both Ishiba and Noda will be busy with horse trading and power jockeying to have the required number when voting takes place on the floor of the parliament.
How opposition parties and independent members align with the two major parties will determine who forms the government and who takes the helm. All bets are off at this stage.
In any scenario, the new government will stand on shaky ground. Ishiba’s position would be weak, not only because his government would depend on opposition and independent members for policymaking and legislation but also because he faces an internally fractured party and leaders waiting in the wings to unseat him.
Noda, the recently elected leader of the CDP, served as prime minister from 2011–2012 and was the leader of the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan, reconstituted as CDP. But non-LDP governments in Japan have a poor track record. In 1993, when the LDP was defeated for the first time since 1955, it was touted as a new political era. This coalition government did not last long, and the LDP returned to power with coalition partners in 1994.
Similarly, when the DPJ defeated the LDP in 2009, it raised the prospect of a truly two-party system. Yet the opposition in power failed again due to internal conflict and frequent changes of leadership, with three prime ministers in three years. The party suffered a humiliating electoral defeat in the 2012 general election with the LDP under Shinzo Abe reclaiming government.
While the volatile situation makes domestic politics unstable and fragile by increasing the potential for policy paralysis, a multi-party coalition government in Tokyo will be weak internationally.
Japan faces significant diplomatic conundrums. In its neighbourhood, China and North Korea constantly challenge Japan through their air and sea incursions into Japanese territories, missile launches and nuclear sabre rattling.
Through its support to Ukraine and NATO, Japan has also upset Russia, its northern neighbour, which has formed a triple axis with China and North Korea, making Japan’s strategic environment even more precarious.
Japan’s most significant foreign policy issue is its relationship with its security ally, the United States. Who wins the presidential race and how the new Japanese leader engages with the new US president will be watched in Japan, the region and around the world.
A weak leader and unstable government in Tokyo do not bode well for Japan’s domestic policy challenges of inflation and low wages with a stagnant economy or foreign affairs demands. Neither Japan nor its friends and allies want a revolving door of prime ministers and frequent government changes in Tokyo.
Purnendra Jain is Emeritus Professor in the Department of Asian Studies at the University of Adelaide.
