TOKYO - As of 9 p.m. on November 8, Typhoon No. 32, known internationally as Champaka, was moving west-northwest over waters south of Japan with a central atmospheric pressure of 970 hectopascals and maximum sustained winds of 35 meters per second, with forecasts indicating that it could intensify into a very strong typhoon before approaching the Ogasawara Islands around Wednesday, November 11.
Satellite imagery showed a well-developed spiral of clouds surrounding the storm's center over waters south of the Ogasawara Islands, with particularly active cloud formations near its core. Additional rain clouds were developing north of the storm along a frontal system, raising concerns that unsettled weather could reach the islands even before the typhoon itself approaches.
The typhoon was traveling west-northwest at approximately 20 kilometers per hour on November 8 and was expected to maintain that general direction through the morning of November 9. Its movement was then forecast to slow considerably, with the storm potentially becoming almost stationary by the evening.
During this period of slower movement, Typhoon No. 32 was expected to strengthen further, with maximum sustained winds near its center reaching 45 meters per second, equivalent to approximately 162 kilometers per hour, bringing it into the very strong typhoon category.
An approaching upper-level trough was expected to alter the prevailing winds and steer the typhoon eastward from November 10. By the evening, the storm was forecast to move across waters southwest of the Ogasawara Islands while maintaining very strong intensity.
Current projections suggest the typhoon is most likely to pass south of Chichijima and Hahajima during the morning of November 11, although changes in its track could affect the severity of conditions across the islands.
The storm is expected to weaken rapidly after November 11 as it continues eastward, moving away from the Japanese archipelago. By November 12 and November 13, it is forecast to approach waters near the International Date Line while continuing to lose strength.
Heavy rain could begin affecting the Ogasawara Islands on November 10 as the frontal system extending north of the typhoon brings rain clouds into the area. Forecasters warned that significant rainfall could develop even while the storm's center remains some distance from the islands.
Rain is expected to continue intermittently from the night of November 10 through the morning of November 11, with periods of locally intense rainfall possible. Although the latest projected track suggests that the most developed rain clouds surrounding the typhoon's center are unlikely to pass directly over the islands, residents have been advised to remain alert to sudden increases in rainfall.
Strong winds are also expected, particularly from the latter half of November 10 through November 11. While the typhoon is currently forecast to pass far enough south to avoid bringing its most destructive winds directly across the islands, atmospheric conditions could still produce hazardous gusts.
As the typhoon moves eastward, a high-pressure system is expected to extend southward from the north, increasing the pressure difference across the region. This could strengthen winds around the Ogasawara Islands independently of the typhoon's immediate circulation.
Forecasters said strong winds could develop during this period, with instantaneous gusts potentially exceeding 20 meters per second, or 72 kilometers per hour, in some locations.
Marine conditions are also expected to deteriorate as the typhoon approaches. Waves around parts of the Ogasawara Islands could reach heights of 3 to 4 meters around November 11, with elevated seas expected to persist throughout at least that day.
The combination of intermittent heavy rain, strong winds and high waves could create hazardous conditions around Chichijima, Hahajima and surrounding coastal waters, particularly between November 10 and November 11.
Residents and visitors have been urged to prepare for deteriorating weather, exercise caution near coastlines and monitor updated forecasts, as the typhoon's precise track and intensity will determine the extent of its impact on the islands.
Source: ウェザーニュース
