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Good time to buy yen with your dollars, history suggests

Dec 31 (Japan Times) - The last quarter of 2019 has been painful for yen bulls, but if history is any guide, good times may be just around the corner.

January has typically proved to be a favorable month for Japan’s currency, bringing gains against the dollar in seven of the last 10 years. Some Tokyo-based strategists expect a repeat in 2020.

The case for a stronger yen is backed by a seasonal pattern that sees the greenback typically weaken at the start of the year, as global investors sell their dollar holdings to make fresh investments overseas, according to Credit Agricole CIB.

The investment bank expects the dollar to also be pressured by the unwinding of positions by Chinese market participants ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays.

The dollar has gained against the yen “only once since 2014 in January,” said Yuji Saito, executive director of Credit Agricole’s foreign exchange department in Tokyo.

“Considering this, traders may want to sell the dollar around the end of the year or early next year.”

Bolstering predictions for a rebound, the yen has been sold off in the lead-up to the end of 2019. Demand has been sapped by improving U.S.-China trade relations, signs of a revival in global manufacturing and a decisive U.K. election result.

Japan’s is the sole Group of 10 currency to weaken against the greenback this quarter, having lost 1 percent since Sept. 30.

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