Jul 11, 2020 (Japan Times) - With just over a year to go until the Tokyo Olympics, medical experts say the event could pose a grave health risk to the public, predicting that few people will have coronavirus antibodies and that vaccines will not be widely available.
Olympic organizers and the central and Tokyo metropolitan governments are scrambling for steps to prevent the pandemic from derailing the event. But they say concrete plans are unlikely to shape up before the end of this year.
The global death toll from COVID-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus, reached half a million late last month, and cases topped 10 million.
Although Tokyo on Friday reported 243 infections, a record high for a single day, Japan has largely avoided the disastrous effects seen in other countries.
That has scientists and medical experts concerned about how things might look next summer, a year after the Tokyo Games were postponed.
In interviews with a dozen infectious diseases experts, a common theme emerged: The Olympics would increase the risk of an outbreak.
"Infection will flare up if we push ahead with the Olympics and hold them. There is no doubt about it," said Daiichi Morii, a doctor at Osaka University Hospital's infection control team.
"The virus is barely under control as we are putting a halt on the inflow of people from overseas," Morii added. "With events like the Olympics, the virus will come in for sure and the number of infections will shoot up inevitably."
Japan's success in containing the virus is part of the reason. A recent government survey showed only 0.1 percent of Tokyo residents have coronavirus antibodies. That is much lower than 14 percent in the state of New York in April, and 7 percent in Stockholm.
"Very few are infected in Japan and pretty much everyone is susceptible," said Katsunori Yanagihara, professor in Nagasaki University's school of tropical medicine and global health.
Antibodies help fight off infections, and scientists say having antibodies for the coronavirus might provide protection against re-infection.
There are more than 100 potential vaccines in development, but experts say none will likely be available in enough quantity in time for the Olympics, which involves about 200 countries.
