TOKYO - In this segment of Mōsate Wakaran—a series that revisits questions and lingering uncertainties from viewers of Mōsate and Mōsate Premium—we take a closer look at the recent meteoric rise of AI stocks.
"Well, it's gotten pretty wild again today. Even the 'Curly Hair Commander' is all curled up," quipped one host, opening with the usual light-hearted banter before turning serious. "Summer markets are usually sluggish. But despite that, something extraordinary has happened."
That something is the birth of what’s now being called the "4 Trillion Club."
While the name of the company wasn’t mentioned at first, the implication was clear: NVIDIA. A few years ago, media outlets like The Nikkei and TV Tokyo made headlines when Apple surpassed 3 trillion dollars in market capitalization. That milestone led to the informal creation of the "3 Trillion Club." Now, NVIDIA has pushed past 4 trillion dollars—equivalent to roughly 600 trillion yen.
The figure is hard to grasp. To give some context, the combined market capitalization of all listed companies in Japan is currently around 1,000 trillion yen. That means NVIDIA alone now represents 60% of the total value of Japan's entire stock market.
To match NVIDIA’s scale, one would need 15 Toyotas or 36 Nintendos. Even Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group would need to be multiplied 58 times. The numbers are so large that they border on the astronomical.
"This is no longer a matter of strong performance. It’s reached a point where we can’t even visualize the scale," said one analyst. "And it’s not just about NVIDIA. Microsoft and Apple are also above 3 trillion dollars."
The implication? If any one of these companies stumbles, the ripple effects could destabilize global markets.
Currently, the combined market cap of the top three U.S. stocks—NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Apple—makes up 20% of the S&P 500’s total value, which is around 8,100 trillion yen. These three are all closely tied to AI semiconductor demand, which is expected to continue growing. But this concentration also raises alarm bells about systemic risk.
Moreover, as NVIDIA's AI chips become increasingly vital to cloud infrastructure and high-performance computing, U.S. tech stocks grow more sensitive to policy changes—such as the recent easing of export restrictions on high-performance chips to China, which has given the company another strong tailwind.
Despite the historic rally, some analysts remain cautious. One remarked, "Whenever you hear people say ‘there’s nothing but tailwinds,’ that’s usually when the biggest corrections hit."
While growth stocks typically benefit from falling interest rates—another factor now supporting U.S. equities—the fear is that the rapid run-up has left markets vulnerable to a sharp correction. Volatility may rise as these few mega-cap stocks wield increasing influence over global indexes like the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
That said, current valuations may not be excessive. NVIDIA’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is around 30, considered reasonable for a growth stock. Apple trades at around 27 times earnings, and even compared to NVIDIA’s own history of trading at 40–50 times earnings, the stock may not be overvalued.
In short, AI-related stocks like NVIDIA may still have room to grow, but the sheer scale of their market presence now poses a double-edged sword: offering both momentum and risk to global financial markets.
Source: テレ東BIZ
