KYOTO - Birthrates in neighboring Kyoto and Shiga prefectures have moved in opposite directions, with experts pointing to housing costs, commuting convenience, and stable employment as key factors shaping where young families choose to live.
Japan's total fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.14 in 2025, marking the tenth consecutive annual decline. While the trend has affected the entire country, regional differences have become increasingly pronounced.
Kyoto Prefecture recorded one of the sharpest declines in the Kansai region and now ranks among the lowest in Japan. In contrast, Shiga Prefecture was the only prefecture in Kansai to post an increase, with Ritto City recording the highest municipal fertility rate in Honshu at 1.92.
The total fertility rate estimates the number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime. A rate of 2.07 is generally considered necessary to maintain a stable population without immigration.
According to researchers studying Japan's declining birthrate, Kyoto City's low fertility rate is closely tied to housing conditions. Strict building-height regulations introduced to preserve the city's historic landscape have limited the supply of large family-sized apartments, pushing prices higher.
As a result, many properties in central Kyoto are increasingly being purchased by wealthy domestic buyers and overseas investors. Real estate professionals say demand from affluent buyers, including foreign purchasers, has intensified competition for housing.
Residents interviewed in Kyoto cited practical challenges for raising children, including expensive housing, crowded public transportation, limited bicycle parking, narrow streets, and difficulties moving around the city with strollers.
Researchers also noted that many students move to Kyoto for university but often leave after graduation or before starting families, reducing the number of child-rearing households within the city.
To understand the opposite trend, attention turned to Ritto City in Shiga Prefecture. Experts identified several factors contributing to its high fertility rate, beginning with its urban design.
Around Ritto Station, large apartment complexes are located within walking distance of rail services, shopping centers, and daily amenities. This combination of housing and convenience has become increasingly attractive as dual-income households become the norm.
Researchers argue that the traditional suburban "new town" model, built around detached homes far from stations, was designed for an era when one parent, typically the father, commuted while the other remained at home. Today's families place greater value on easy commuting and access to shopping and services.
Housing prices also play a significant role. Real estate agents say detached homes near Ritto can be purchased for around 50 million to 55 million yen, while similarly sized properties would be difficult to find in Kyoto. Larger lots and multiple parking spaces are additional attractions for young families.
According to local real estate firms, roughly 30 percent of homebuyers in some developments are relocating from Kyoto and other neighboring areas. Many neighborhoods are dominated by households with children, including families with three or more children.
Experts say another important factor is employment. Ritto has actively attracted manufacturers by leveraging its proximity to major expressway interchanges. The concentration of factories provides a steady supply of stable jobs, helping create the economic security many families seek before having children.
Researchers concluded that the combination of station-area housing within commuting distance of major cities and stable employment opportunities appears to be a powerful formula for supporting higher birthrates.
While Kyoto and Shiga have produced sharply different outcomes despite being neighbors, experts caution that the issue should be viewed from a national perspective. Rather than concentrating population growth in expensive urban centers, they argue that encouraging families to settle in more affordable municipalities with good transport links may be a more effective way to support child-rearing and slow Japan's population decline.
They also note that financial support alone may not reverse the trend. As lifestyles diversify and more people choose to remain single, broader discussions about family life, parenting, and future life planning may become increasingly important in addressing Japan's demographic challenges.
Source: KTV NEWS
