Japan's Ruling Bloc Faces Tough Battle to Keep Majority

Jul 14, 2025 | News On Japan

TOKYO - The ruling coalition is facing an increasingly difficult battle to retain its majority in Japan’s House of Councillors, according to a mid-campaign opinion poll by FNN ahead of the July 20th election. Meanwhile, the minor party Sanseitō is showing strong momentum and could see a significant boost in its number of seats.

The survey was conducted over two days through July 13th via telephone, asking voters across the country about their preferences in both constituency and proportional representation races. Approximately 33,000 people responded.

The Liberal Democratic Party, which had been leading in about half of the single-member districts as of last week’s survey, is now facing tight races against opposition candidates. In the proportional vote, it appears unlikely to reach its target of securing all 19 seats up for re-election. The party’s total may remain in the low 40s.

Komeito, the LDP’s junior coalition partner, is also struggling. Many of its candidates in districts where the party is defending more than three seats are on the borderline, and its combined district and proportional seats may fall short of its current 14.

Together, the LDP and Komeito need to secure at least 50 seats to maintain a majority when non-contested seats are included, but prospects are increasingly uncertain.

Among the opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party is poised to win more constituency seats than it currently holds but is underperforming in the proportional vote, with its total projected to remain in the high 20s.

Nippon Ishin no Kai is maintaining support in its Kansai stronghold but is failing to expand beyond the region, likely limiting it to around its current five seats.

The Japanese Communist Party is leading in the Tokyo district but is struggling elsewhere and in proportional voting, with the total number of seats expected to decline.

The Democratic Party for the People is showing strength in some districts around the Tokyo and Tokai regions and is also gaining traction in the proportional vote, with a potential to double its seat count and approach its goal of at least 16 seats.

Reiwa Shinsengumi appears likely to win multiple seats through the proportional system.

The Sanseitō party is experiencing a significant surge, with strong nationwide momentum in the proportional race and several leading candidates in districts with three or more seats up for election. At this point, the party may exceed 10 seats.

The Social Democratic Party and Japan Conservative Party also have chances to win proportional seats.

With many close races and a significant number of undecided voters remaining, the situation remains fluid and could shift further in the days ahead.

Source: FNN

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