TOKYO - Japan could face a more active typhoon season than usual in 2026, with private weather forecaster Weathernews predicting around 28 typhoons to form during the year—above the long-term average of 25.1—and warning that approximately 14 could approach Japan, increasing the risk of weather-related disruptions across the country.
The prediction comes after Typhoon Jangmi (Typhoon No. 6) brought significant impacts to Japan in early June. By this point in the year, six typhoons have already formed, compared with the typical pace of three to four storms by the beginning of June, indicating that activity is running ahead of average.
According to Weathernews, tropical cyclone development is expected to remain active through the remainder of the season, potentially pushing the final total to around 28 storms by year's end.
Meteorologists say several large-scale climate patterns are contributing to the forecast. A developing La Niña pattern is expected to emerge later this year, while conditions in the Indian Ocean are also likely to favor enhanced storm formation. These patterns are expected to strengthen westerly winds near the Philippines, where they will interact with easterly trade winds and promote vigorous thunderstorm activity over waters east of the Philippines, one of the primary breeding grounds for typhoons affecting East Asia.
Sea surface temperatures are also expected to remain above average through autumn. Warmer ocean waters provide additional moisture and energy for tropical systems, increasing the likelihood that storms will both form and intensify.
Forecasters note that the projected storm tracks differ from those seen in 2025. Last year, many typhoons moved westward toward the South China Sea and countries such as Vietnam after a strong westward extension of the Pacific high-pressure system blocked their northward movement.
This year, however, the Pacific high is expected to extend more strongly northward rather than westward. As a result, typhoons forming east of the Philippines may be more likely to curve north toward Japan instead of tracking west into Southeast Asia.
The combination of increased storm formation and a greater tendency for systems to move toward Japan could make this year's typhoon season more disruptive than last year's, according to Weathernews.
The period from July through September is expected to bring the highest risk. During midsummer, typhoons typically move around the edge of the Pacific high-pressure system, often tracking through the Sea of Japan or near the Japanese archipelago. Depending on the position and strength of the high-pressure system, some storms could take routes that bring them directly into western Japan or across central Honshu.
While many early-season systems in June tend to remain south of Japan along the seasonal rain front, meteorologists warn that the risk of close approaches and landfalls is expected to increase as summer progresses.
Weathernews is urging residents to closely monitor tropical depressions as well as named typhoons, review emergency plans, and familiarize themselves with the latest disaster prevention information before the peak season arrives.
Source: ウェザーニュース
