Sep 04, 2021 (nytimes.com) - When Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced on Friday that he would not seek re-election as head of Japan’s governing party, the decision created an unexpected opening to replace him.
Mr. Suga leaves the Liberal Democratic Party facing its biggest crisis in over a decade. Japan’s vaccine rollout started slowly. Coronavirus case counts are at their highest levels of the pandemic. The economic recovery has been tepid. And the government has failed to articulate a clear path forward.
The public is angry “about the way that Covid-19 and its economic effects have been handled,” said Michael Cucek, an assistant professor of Asian studies at Temple University’s Japan campus.
There’s little chance that the L.D.P. will lose power, but it is almost certain to see its majority diminished, he said. That means that as the party decides who will replace Mr. Suga, the priority is finding someone who can “stanch the bleeding.” The new leader will be a shoo-in to become the next prime minister.
With rank-and-file party members afraid for their prospects in the lower house elections that are likely to be held next month, many will want to “take this opportunity to change the image of the L.D.P.,” said Jiro Yamaguchi, a professor of political science at Hosei University in Tokyo.
Standing in the way of that desire, however, are the entrenched interests of the party’s elite, who will be reluctant to hand power to a new generation, he said.
The outcome of the party election is likely to hinge, as always, on the results of horse trading and back-room deals among the various internal factions led by those insiders. Here are some of the candidates they are likely to consider.
So far, only one person has officially announced an intention to run: Fumio Kishida, a former foreign minister. During a news conference on Tuesday outlining his platform, he sought to draw a bright line with Mr. Suga, pledging a more transparent and accountable style of government that would get the coronavirus firmly under control by early next year.
