TOKYO - Rice prices in Japan continue to soar, more than doubling from the same period last year, with no clear signs of easing despite the government’s decision to release stockpiled rice. The current situation—dubbed the “Reiwa Rice Crisis”—has drawn comparisons to past supply shocks, prompting public concern and debate over whether government intervention has come too late.
A sudden disappearance of rice from supermarket shelves in the summer of 2023 alarmed consumers nationwide. The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) identified three key factors behind the shortage: a heatwave that damaged crop quality and reduced supply, a rise in foreign visitors boosting domestic consumption, and panic-buying sparked by the release of a major earthquake warning along the Nankai Trough in August.
Though the ministry initially predicted the autumn harvest would ease the shortage, demand remained high as households continued to stock up. The average price for 5 kilograms of rice reached 4,214 yen in early April, marking a 14-week streak of increases. That figure is more than double the price seen during the same period last year.
Another key indicator—the rice wholesale market reference price—reached 24,383 yen per 60 kilograms for 2024, surpassing the record set during the 1993 Heisei Rice Crisis. The combination of lower supply and intensified competition among wholesalers has driven prices higher, with sellers unwilling to part with inventory at a loss.
In response, the government began releasing rice from its emergency stockpile, originally established after the 1993 crisis. The reserve is maintained at around 1 million tons nationwide and is meant to buffer the market during disasters or poor harvests. As of the end of June 2024, about 910,000 tons were held in storage.
However, criticism has mounted over the government’s delay in releasing the stockpile. Though many urged action as early as summer, officials were hesitant to act, citing the stockpile’s intended use only in cases of disaster or extreme shortages. By January, with persistent supply issues and climbing prices, the rules were revised to allow release even in cases where market flow is disrupted.
One reason for the delay was concern over its impact on farmers. After years of depressed rice prices due to falling demand, recent price increases finally allowed producers to recover rising costs for fertilizers and materials. The government feared a sudden influx of cheaper rice could jeopardize this fragile recovery.
Historically, stockpiled rice has only been released twice—after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. This is the first time it is being used to stabilize market prices rather than respond to disaster-driven shortages.
The initial batch of released rice—around 140,000 tons—was auctioned in March and began appearing in stores by the end of that month. Most of it is blended rice and sold without special labeling, making it difficult for consumers to distinguish from regular stock. A second release of 70,000 tons began in mid-April, and a third round of 100,000 tons is scheduled for April 23rd. The ministry plans monthly releases through July, adjusting the scale based on market conditions.
Despite these efforts, the price drop has yet to materialize. Although the stockpiled rice is being sold at prices 10–20% lower than average, overall market prices remain high. Wholesalers and supermarkets, having bought rice at peak prices, are reluctant to sell at a loss. Additionally, distribution of the released stock remains uneven and limited to certain areas.
Agriculture Minister Eto has held talks with industry leaders, noting that the effects of the stockpile release may not be widely felt until late April or May. A return to early 2023 price levels—around 2,000 yen per 5 kilograms—remains unlikely for now.
Even though rice consumption continues to fall due to changing diets and population decline, the recent surge in prices shows how vulnerable the supply-demand balance has become. The government has long adjusted production levels to avoid oversupply, but this has also made the market more susceptible to disruption.
Looking ahead, experts warn that similar problems could arise again. Japan’s rice supply has little buffer capacity, and recent summers have grown increasingly hot—creating conditions that impair rice quality and shrink yields. While heat-resistant rice strains are under development, their widespread adoption will take time.
As for what consumers can do, experts advise staying calm. Panic-buying and speculative behavior can distort the market and worsen price volatility. Meanwhile, the government must continue improving information transparency to ease public anxiety. By making decisions based on accurate information rather than fear, consumers can help stabilize both supply and price.
Source: Kyodo
