OSAKA - Japan is facing a growing crisis not just with rice, but also with seafood, as supply shortages and rising prices begin to hit the consumer's dinner table.
While the jump in fish prices may not feel as sudden as rice hikes, the increases are steady and significant. One stark example is the soaring price of surume ika (Japanese flying squid), which cost just 283 yen per kilogram in 2013 but now exceeds 1,000 yen—a nearly fourfold increase. Scallops have also surged to 842 yen per 100 grams at some retailers, up 216 yen from March, while shirasu (whitebait) have risen by 63 yen to 365 yen per 100 grams. The decline in domestic catches is now impacting prices across a wide range of seafood products.
The root cause lies in a dramatic drop in fish catches. Compared to a decade ago, squid catches have plunged by 88.3%, and saury by 82.9%, while mackerel has declined by 28%. Even with imports from countries like Norway helping to buffer the impact, the cost of domestic mackerel is steadily rising. One producer of premium canned mackerel in the Sanriku region, once known for flavor and variety, is halting production at the end of the month due to unsustainable sourcing costs—signaling how business operations are also being forced to adapt.
The decline in overall seafood catch—down 800,000 tons over the past nine years—is largely attributed to rising sea surface temperatures and long-term changes in ocean currents such as the Kuroshio Extension. The average sea temperature has increased by 1.33°C per century, and while some changes may stabilize, there's no guarantee fish populations will return to previous areas. With prices rising, consumption is declining, creating a negative feedback loop: higher consumer prices lead to reduced purchases, which further destabilizes the market.
Adding to this trend are changing consumer behaviors. Preparing fish is often seen as troublesome, reducing motivation to buy it despite its high nutritional value. The Expo in Osaka is using this moment to spotlight sustainable food futures. For example, the sushi chain Sushiro is introducing land-farmed eel and kawahagi (thread-sail filefish) to substitute for declining wild catches. Another company, Kurashi, is promoting sushi made from underutilized or low-market-value fish like "nizadai" (a fish with a strong odor that was tamed by feeding it cabbage), turning them into marketable sushi options.
Technological and conceptual innovations are also featured, such as the digital pavilion Earth Mart, where virtual sushi chefs display future sushi ingredients—like parasite-free mackerel, purine-free white fish, boneless eel, and allergen-free shrimp. These offerings are designed to expand consumer options, especially for those with health concerns or allergies. Some of these futuristic ideas are already in use: parasite-free mackerel from Tottori and norovirus-free oysters from Okinawa are now commercially viable thanks to land-based aquaculture using deep-sea water.
The most consumed seafood in Japan continues to be salmon, both for its popularity among Japanese and foreign consumers. To meet this demand, major players like Kyushu Electric Power have entered the aquaculture business in partnership with fisheries, aiming to increase annual salmon output from 300 tons to 3,000 tons. With advantages such as affordable electricity and disaster-resilient infrastructure on former power plant sites, these ventures may help stabilize supply. However, challenges remain, and the development of sustainable, large-scale aquaculture is still a work in progress.
As global seafood demand is expected to double in the next 50 years, Japan’s abundant marine resources and island geography place it in a strong position. The nation must now consider how to protect its food security, boost domestic production, and leverage its fisheries industry as a strategic export asset in the global market.
Source: YOMIURI
