Recruit Chief Says AI Is Not Taking Jobs

Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Idekoba told TV Tokyo’s WBS program that concerns about mass unemployment driven by AI are overstated, even as global companies accelerate investment in the technology.

Recruit, which has acquired several U.S. HR technology firms and monitors employment data closely, sees little evidence that AI is eliminating jobs across the broader labor market. Idekoba said the notion that AI will suddenly replace entire occupations is misguided, emphasizing instead that AI is more likely to reshape individual tasks within jobs rather than eliminate positions altogether.

“I often say that AI is not a job killer,” Idekoba said. “It’s extremely rare for a person’s entire job to be replaced one-to-one by AI. What happens instead is that certain tasks—such as data gathering or drafting text—may shift to AI, prompting companies to redesign roles so workers can focus on other responsibilities.”

He added that, for at least the next five to ten years, widespread job losses caused directly by AI are unlikely. Claims that unemployment rates could surge to 10% due to AI are unfounded, he said, noting that layoffs reported at major technology firms represent only a small share of the overall labor market. Tech workers account for less than 2% of total employment in the United States, and many who lose positions in one sector quickly find work in others.

While hiring for software engineers in the U.S. has fallen roughly 40% compared with pre-pandemic levels, Idekoba attributed this primarily to post-pandemic adjustments following a hiring surge rather than to AI adoption. Meanwhile, hiring in fields often cited as vulnerable to automation—such as legal and accounting—remains about 20% higher than before COVID-19, suggesting that AI has yet to significantly reduce demand for workers in those areas.

Job growth in sectors requiring physical presence, including healthcare, is expected to remain strong. In the U.S., about one-third of job growth last year came from healthcare, particularly nursing roles, where labor shortages persist amid reduced immigration. Roles requiring physical work, such as plumbing or electrical work, are even less susceptible to near-term automation, Idekoba said.

Companies seeking workers with AI-related skills remain a minority. Only about 5% of U.S. firms are currently posting jobs that explicitly require AI expertise, though that share has risen in recent years. The number of jobs created by AI and the number displaced by it are both still relatively small, according to Recruit’s data.

Idekoba also noted that many executives are still struggling to demonstrate clear returns on AI investments. Even in the United States, where AI adoption is most advanced, he expects that the 2026 earnings season may not yet show substantial improvements in productivity or profit margins attributable to AI, particularly at large corporations with complex operations.

More broadly, he argued that immigration policy and demographic trends are having a greater impact on labor markets in advanced economies than AI. Tightening immigration in many countries has led to labor shortages, making it harder for companies to hire and pushing unemployment rates lower than many analysts predicted.

Looking ahead, Idekoba said the key challenge for workers will not be avoiding AI but adapting to continuous change. Skills will evolve rapidly, and the ability to embrace new technologies and shifting roles will be more important than mastering any single expertise.

“What matters most is mindset,” he said. “When change happens, do you see it as a problem or as something interesting? People who can approach change with curiosity will ultimately find greater satisfaction in their careers. AI will keep changing the way we work, but it doesn’t have to make us less happy.”

Source: テレ東BIZ