HOKKAIDO, May 12, 2026 (News On Japan) - Brand rice variety Yumepirika was being planted one after another in rice paddies in Higashikawa, Hokkaido, as rice planting work accelerates across Japan ahead of the autumn harvest, with attention now turning to how much this year’s new rice will cost.
At a supermarket in Saitama Prefecture on May 11th, popular rice varieties including Koshihikari were being sold for less than 3,000 yen excluding tax.
Tomonari Iida, manager of Fresh Market Higashihongo store, said: "It would have been almost unthinkable to sell at this price not long ago. Since the start of the year, prices have fallen by 100 yen, 200 yen, even 300 yen."
One shopper visiting the supermarket said: "(Q. How do you feel about cheaper branded rice?) It still tastes good even when cold, so lower prices really help."
Against this backdrop, a new outlook survey targeting rice industry participants was released on May 11th.
The price outlook index rises as it approaches 100, but the forecast index for the next three months stood at 28. The figure has remained below the key 50-point threshold for seven consecutive months, indicating that expectations for further price declines continue to dominate.
The latest supermarket rice prices have also fallen into the 3,700-yen range for the first time in around eight months, with the average price for 5 kilograms at 3,796 yen. Retailers are increasingly moving to reduce inventories before newly harvested rice reaches the market.
Questions are now growing over whether prices for this autumn’s new rice crop will continue to decline.
Naoya Matsudaira, assistant professor at Utsunomiya University’s Faculty of Agriculture and an expert on rice distribution, said: "Last year prices exceeded 4,000 yen, but I don’t think they will rise that high this time, even for premium brands. Inventory levels will continue to affect the market after the new harvest arrives. I expect prices to be around 3,500 yen when the new rice begins going on sale."
Meanwhile, rice producers voiced concerns over cultivation conditions.
Rice farmer Shogo Tada said: "It’s difficult, but Koshihikari is the king of rice. Most farmers still grow Koshihikari on 20% to 30% of their land."
Although Koshihikari remains highly popular, Tada said the extreme heat seen in 2025 exposed some of the variety’s weaknesses.
"When temperatures rise, there is a greater risk of water shortages and damage from stink bugs, which can lower quality," Tada said. "The grains become thinner and the quality grade can also fall."
Attention will remain focused on rice price trends heading toward the autumn harvest season.
Source: FNN
