Japan's GDP forecast to shrink 11% in second quarter

Apr 10, 2020 | News On Japan

Apr 10, 2020 (Nikkei) - The Japanese economy will contract more than 11% in the April-June quarter as the coronavirus crisis intensifies, according to the latest consensus forecast of private-sector economists.

The outlook for the world's third-largest economy worsens by the week. Economists had predicted real gross domestic product to grow an annualized 2.31% for the second quarter in a March 3-10 survey by the Japan Center for Economic Research. They cut the forecast to minus 6.93% in a poll taken between March 27 and April 3.

Now, with the pandemic raging and Japan declaring a state of emergency, the second-quarter outlook reached minus 11.08% in a special poll that closed Wednesday. Asked about the first quarter, the 24 respondents estimated that GDP likely contracted 4.06%.

The latest forecasts would mark a third straight instance of negative quarter-to-quarter growth that began in the fourth quarter of 2019 after the consumption tax was raised last October.

Respondents now see GDP shrinking 3.09% for the fiscal year through March 2021, compared with the 0.16% contraction forecast in early March. They estimate a 0.1% dip for the year ended March 31.

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