Apr 23, 2022 (seekingalpha.com) - Japan is a slowly aging economy stuck in low rates of inflation and comparatively low GDP growth rates.
There is even a term called “Japanification” referring to how other developed economies are gradually facing similar demographic and economic quagmire that Japan finds itself in. But despite such development, does it really mean that Japan will have a few people left in 200 years and there is no point at even looking at Japanese equity market, including ETFs focusing on Japan
While Japan’s working age population has been on a gradual decline, this does not necessarily translate into corporate weakness. After peaking in 1997 at 86.8 million, the working age population in Japan declined to 74.2 million in 2021. However, Japan’s corporate profit surprisingly showed an upward trend for the past 40 years.
While there are many factors behind the increasing profits, among most notable are a likely expansion in foreign markets, growth in labor productivity and strengthening corporate governance that put profits in focus.
While down the road in 40-50-100 years Japan may indeed have fewer than 100 million people, what matters to me as an investor is what happens within the next 5-10 years. For instance, if you look at demographic projections for China, its working age population is projected to decrease by a double-digit percentage by 2100, yet this does not prevent investors from searching and investing in Chinese equities with strong profit potential. ...continue reading
