TOKYO - Rare earths are strategic materials on which the world remains heavily dependent on China, and as Beijing increasingly uses export controls as a diplomatic and economic lever, Japan’s latest challenge is drawing historic attention as a potential turning point. With 2026 being described as the “first year of domestically sourced rare earths,” the question is whether Japan can truly become a game changer in reducing its reliance on China.
At the center of this effort is an unprecedented plan to extract rare earth-rich mud from the seabed at a depth of 6,000 meters, an initiative explained by Kyodo News economic desk editor Satoshi Matsuo.
Japan’s rare earth strategy is attracting attention not simply because of the size of potential reserves, but because it could fundamentally alter the structure of global dependence on China. While China is often said to dominate rare earths due to its vast reserves, including major mines in Inner Mongolia, Matsuo notes that resource abundance alone does not explain Beijing’s overwhelming advantage.
The production of rare earths requires large quantities of chemical agents and involves the handling of radioactive waste, processes that carry significant environmental risks. In Europe and the United States, stricter environmental regulations since the 1980s pushed up costs and eroded competitiveness, leading many mines to close or suspend operations. China, by contrast, accepted these environmental burdens, while also benefiting from lower labor costs and steadily improving processing technologies, ultimately allowing it to capture the global market.
As a result, the world’s dependence on China for rare earths has effectively outsourced environmental and human rights risks, a dynamic that mirrors patterns seen in industries such as apparel manufacturing. Rare earths remain indispensable, however, often compared to “vitamins for high-tech industries,” supporting electric vehicle motors, smartphone components, semiconductors, defense equipment, and other technologies that underpin modern society.
Because supply chains are heavily concentrated in China, rare earths have become a critical resource in terms of economic security, prompting Japan and other countries to accelerate efforts to secure alternative supplies. For Japan, 2026 has been positioned as the starting point of a domestic rare earth era.
Around Minamitorishima, Japan’s easternmost island, researchers have confirmed the presence of seabed mud containing rare earths at high concentrations. To make use of this resource, the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology will conduct operational tests on site. The exploration vessel Chikyu, designed for deep-earth research, is scheduled to extend equipment to the seafloor at a depth of roughly 6,000 meters and attempt to suction up the mud, a world-first endeavor.
If the trial succeeds, Japan plans to carry out a full-scale extraction test in February 2027. The project has drawn intense attention because seabed rare earth mud is expected to involve fewer concerns related to radioactive waste compared with conventional mining on land, potentially offering a cleaner and more sustainable supply source.
Success would mark a major step toward reducing China dependence, with some analysts predicting a sharp decline in Japan’s reliance on Chinese rare earths if commercial extraction becomes viable.
Rare earths have become especially sensitive because China has repeatedly used them as a diplomatic bargaining chip. Since a fishing boat collision incident near Japan in 2010, rare earths have increasingly been treated as a strategic “card” in bilateral relations. More recently, remarks by Japan’s prime minister related to Taiwan prompted strong reactions from Beijing, and reports suggest that rare earth transactions are already affecting Japanese companies.
According to Kyodo News, Chinese state-owned enterprises have informed some Japanese firms that they will not enter into new contracts for shipments to Japan. It remains unclear whether these decisions reflect direct government instructions or preemptive moves by companies seeking to align with Beijing’s intentions, but the sense of tension surrounding rare earth supplies is unmistakable.
Japan has faced a series of supply shocks in recent years, from semiconductor shortages to growing concerns over rare earth availability. Because rare earths are essential components in semiconductors, supply disruptions can have widespread economic consequences.
Japan’s push to utilize rare earth-rich seabed mud has therefore become a focal point of national and international attention. After the 2010 incident, Japan began steadily reducing its dependence on China, with China accounting for about 85% of Japan’s rare earth imports in 2009, falling to roughly 58% by 2020. The latest initiative is seen as a particularly bold step in that long-term strategy.
If successful, Japan’s deep-sea rare earth project could reshape global supply chains and weaken China’s leverage over a resource that has long been treated as a strategic trump card. For many observers, the hope is simple: that Japan’s gamble beneath 6,000 meters of ocean will finally pay off.
Source: Kyodo
