BEIJING, Feb 04, 2026 (News On Japan) - China’s major holiday period, the Lunar New Year, is set to begin soon, with a record 9.5 billion passenger journeys forecast nationwide this year, but an unexpected shift has emerged as travel to Japan, which typically ranks among the top overseas destinations during the holiday, has dropped out of the rankings entirely.
Travelers interviewed locally said they were choosing not to visit Japan in line with government guidance or out of concern for safety, citing reports of rising anti-China sentiment. The cooling of Japan-China relations appears to be reshaping Lunar New Year travel patterns, raising questions about the impact on Japan as the holiday approaches.
An emergency visit to Shanghai highlighted the festive mood spreading across China ahead of the holiday. At Shanghai Disneyland, red lantern installations decorated the plaza in front of the iconic castle, creating a celebratory atmosphere, while characters like Mickey Mouse appeared in Lunar New Year-themed attire. Fireworks lit up the sky as the city entered countdown mode for the lunar calendar’s New Year celebrations.
This year’s Lunar New Year holiday runs from January 15 to January 23, forming a nine-day break. According to Chinese government estimates, travel linked to the holiday period from January 14 through February 13 will total a record 9.5 billion trips over 40 days. Major transport hubs were already crowded, with travelers filling floors even before the peak period arrived.
Despite the surge in domestic travel, a notable change has emerged in overseas destinations. Japan, long a favorite among Chinese holidaymakers, has seen demand sharply decline. Some travelers said they were following government advice to avoid Japan, while others cited safety concerns after hearing that anti-China sentiment had intensified.
Chinese travel agencies reported that Japan, which ranked third among overseas destinations last year, has fallen out of the top 10 this year. On December 26, China’s Foreign Ministry issued an advisory urging citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan for the time being, citing concerns over public safety and crime.
Following the advisory, Chinese social media platforms have been flooded with posts urging people not to visit Japan during the Lunar New Year. Many users echoed the government’s stance, with some saying they would wait until bilateral relations improve, while others argued that spending money domestically was preferable to supporting foreign economies.
Journalist Kondo, who closely follows Chinese political developments, said the backdrop includes Japan’s security-related statements. He pointed to remarks made in the Diet last year by Prime Minister Ishiba regarding contingencies involving Taiwan and situations threatening Japan’s survival, which were interpreted by China as hostile. In a political system where government signals carry strong weight, Kondo said, it becomes difficult for citizens to go against official guidance once a clear stance is communicated.
Kondo added that the deterioration in relations could have broader consequences for Japan. He argued that China may feel emboldened by what it perceives as a more favorable international environment, noting that leaders from Canada, France, and the United Kingdom have recently visited China and signaled a willingness to engage. Against that backdrop, China may feel able to take a tougher line toward Japan without facing coordinated pushback from the United States or the G7.
As Japan’s popularity wanes, South Korea has emerged as the top overseas destination for Chinese Lunar New Year travelers, with Seoul ranking first. On the ground in South Korea, popular tourist areas have seen a visible increase in Chinese visitors. Restaurant operators said many Chinese tourists were arriving in organized tour groups, filling streets lined with eateries.
Some Chinese tourists in Seoul said Japan had originally been an option but was ultimately ruled out due to strained relations and limited availability of tours and flights. Others said family members, particularly older relatives, had urged them not to travel to Japan.
In Japan, the impact is already being felt. In Osaka, reporters found that Chinese tourist numbers had declined noticeably around Tsutenkaku, a landmark that typically draws large crowds during the Lunar New Year period. Local officials said Chinese visitors usually account for just over 10% of total tourism, and that segment has fallen sharply this year.
At Tsutenkaku, ema prayer plaques written in Japanese and other languages were more prominent than usual, with far fewer inscriptions in Chinese. While the downturn has raised concerns, some business leaders see an opportunity. One local executive said reliance on the Chinese market had always been a risk and described the current situation as a chance to attract visitors from other countries, turning a “China shock” into an opportunity for diversification.
As for how long the situation may last, Kondo said China made its stance toward Japan clear as early as November, and he expects the current hardline approach to continue for at least a year.
The economic stakes are high. Last year, inbound visitor numbers to Japan were led by South Korea and China, each sending more than nine million travelers. In terms of spending, however, China ranked first, with consumption totaling roughly 2 trillion yen, accounting for more than 20% of Japan’s total inbound tourism spending.
Analysts warn that the decline in Chinese visitors could therefore have an outsized economic impact. As a response, some experts argue Japan should accelerate a shift in its tourism strategy, moving from a focus on mass retail purchases to higher-value experiential services, and from broad mass tourism toward more clearly defined segments based on income, interests, or other attributes.
By targeting smaller numbers of higher-spending visitors and adopting a more proactive approach to attracting specific customer groups, they argue, Japan could turn the current downturn into an opportunity to build a more resilient and sustainable inbound tourism industry, even as Japan-China relations remain strained.
Source: KTV NEWS
