IBARAKI, Jun 07, 2026 - Japan's agricultural sector, which supports the nation's food supply, is beginning to feel the impact of the Middle East crisis, as soaring fuel and fertilizer costs and growing shortages of essential farming materials raise fears that more producers may abandon the industry.
The concerns have intensified following damage caused by Typhoon Jangmi (Typhoon No. 6), which brought power outages and strong winds to parts of Japan, including Ibaraki Prefecture. Farmers were left scrambling to repair damaged vinyl greenhouses, many of which are essential for growing crops such as Chinese chives, melons and strawberries.
At one farm in Ibaraki, growers were carrying out emergency repairs to a greenhouse whose covering had been torn apart by the storm. Agricultural suppliers in the area say requests for repair materials have surged, particularly for greenhouse film used to patch damaged structures.
Many of the inquiries concern greenhouse coverings made from petroleum-based materials. Industry suppliers say deteriorating conditions in the Middle East have disrupted the supply chain for these products, creating uncertainty over future deliveries.
The problem extends beyond repairs. Some farmers who have already erected new greenhouse frames are unable to complete construction because the necessary covering materials have not yet arrived.
One agricultural materials supplier explained that while some orders can still be fulfilled, many products face significant delays. Compared with two months ago, when suppliers could provide no delivery forecasts at all, the situation has improved slightly, but visibility remains limited.
"If this situation continues, it could eventually affect the food supply itself," the supplier warned.
The uncertainty is particularly troubling for strawberry producers. In Ibaraki, farmer Mitsutaka Kamata is currently raising seedlings for the harvest season beginning in November.
"Strawberries are delicate," Kamata said. "They are sensitive to temperature and humidity, and it takes a long time before consumers finally get to eat them."
Kamata ships around 100 tons of strawberries annually, but the greenhouse film needed for next season has yet to be secured.
Unlike some crops, strawberry growers must replace greenhouse coverings every year to maintain sufficient light transmission and insulation. Kamata requires roughly 50 rolls of film each autumn, but manufacturers have informed him that delivery cannot yet be guaranteed.
"If the new film doesn't arrive, we'll have to reuse old coverings," he said. "The older material blocks more sunlight, and yields could fall by 20% or 30%, possibly even 50%."
Reduced insulation would also require more heating, further increasing fuel expenses.
"If production falls by 30% while every cost continues rising, we could easily end up operating at a loss," Kamata said. "At that point, some people will start asking whether it's worth growing crops at all."
Even if materials eventually arrive, the higher prices remain a burden.
"The cost will go up, but passing those costs on to consumers is difficult," he said. "Farmers end up absorbing the losses themselves."
Greenhouse film manufacturers confirm they are facing significant pressure. One major producer explained that the petroleum-derived raw materials used to make agricultural films became difficult to obtain earlier this year as global supply tightened.
Although imports from overseas have helped stabilize production, the company was forced to raise prices by around 30% this spring.
The higher prices and fears of future shortages have triggered stockpiling by customers, pushing demand beyond available supply.
"People are buying materials they may not need immediately because they are worried about future availability," a company representative said.
Manufacturers say supply conditions have begun to improve, with procurement forecasts extending one-and-a-half to two months ahead. However, ensuring sufficient inventory for the peak demand season in September and October remains a major challenge.
The impact is also being felt in rice-producing regions.
In Ogata Village, Akita Prefecture, where rice planting reached its peak this week, farmers are grappling with rising diesel fuel costs. Diesel prices climbed to as high as 178.4 yen per liter before government subsidies, and even after assistance remain around 158 yen per liter, roughly 5 yen higher than a year ago.
For large-scale rice farmers managing hundreds of hectares, fuel has become a major expense. Fertilizer costs are also climbing sharply.
An estimated 20% to 30% of globally traded fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making the sector highly vulnerable to disruptions in the region. As prices rise worldwide, Japan, which depends heavily on imported fertilizer, is also feeling the effects.
JA Zen-Noh, which handles roughly half of all fertilizer distributed domestically, raised prices by as much as 14.5% beginning in June. By the time fertilizer reaches farms, costs are often even higher because of transportation and processing expenses.
One rice farmer and processor noted that rising costs extend beyond fertilizer.
His company produces approximately 18,000 servings of packaged rice per hour, totaling around 5.5 million servings annually. Higher gas, electricity, packaging and transportation costs have added about 10 yen to the cost of each package, translating into tens of millions of yen in additional expenses.
"Everything is becoming more expensive," he said. "Oil, fertilizer, naphtha, packaging materials—everything."
While companies are trying to cut costs, many believe further price increases for food products will become unavoidable.
According to Ministry of Agriculture statistics, the number of rice farmers in Japan has fallen by roughly half over the past 15 years.
The farmer fears the latest crisis could accelerate that decline.
"People are already preparing to quit farming," he said. "Last year rice prices rose, but that still didn't stop people from leaving. This time may be what finally pushes many of them over the edge."
International organizations are also warning of broader consequences.
Massimo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said disruptions to fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to drive food prices higher in the coming months.
"Today people are worried about energy prices," Torero said. "A few months from now, they may be worrying about food prices."
According to the FAO, some countries are already struggling to obtain sufficient fertilizer, while prices have risen by as much as 50% in certain markets.
Because lower fertilizer use typically results in reduced crop yields, the effects may become visible later this year.
Australia, which depends on the Middle East for more than 60% of its imported fertilizer, is already experiencing significant disruption. Some wheat farmers have reduced planting areas because fertilizer costs have doubled or tripled.
Australia is the world's second-largest wheat exporter, but production is expected to decline by around 26% this season, potentially reducing exports by 10 million tons—equivalent to about 5% of global wheat exports.
Japan, which relies heavily on Australian wheat imports, could also feel the effects.
Torero warned that continued declines in harvests could trigger a new wave of global food inflation and even food shortages in some regions.
Japan imports roughly 80% of its wheat consumption, and trade data show that import prices for soybeans, wheat and corn have been rising steadily over the past decade.
Professor Hiroshi Nishikawa, an expert on Japanese agricultural policy, said recent crises have exposed the risks of relying too heavily on imported food and agricultural inputs.
"For many years Japan believed that as long as it could pay, it would always be able to import what it needed," Nishikawa said. "Now we are facing the possibility that products may simply not arrive at all."
He argued that the current crisis presents an opportunity to rethink agricultural policy and strengthen domestic food production.
"When the choice is between paying more for imported food or paying more for food produced domestically, domestic production provides a form of insurance for society," Nishikawa said.
Farmers interviewed for the report repeatedly expressed concern that the current combination of material shortages, rising fuel costs and growing uncertainty could trigger a new wave of farm closures.
Many are still fighting to survive by reducing costs and searching for new sales channels, but they warn that unless conditions improve, Japan's already shrinking agricultural sector may face an even more difficult future.
Source: TBS
