Jan 19, 2018 (NHK) - A new study shows the number of public elementary and junior high schools in Japan may fall to a third of its current total by 2050, due to a declining population.
The projection was made by Professor Yuji Nemoto of Toyo University, who studies the future of public facilities.
Government guidelines specify that schools should be consolidated to maintain a sustainable number of students at each. Nemoto ran a simulation to see how many public schools would remain by around 2050 if this process continues.
He found that the total number of elementary schools would fall to around 6,500 from around 19,800 in 2016. He projected a similar drop in the number of junior high schools, falling to around 3,100 from 9,500 in 2016.
In Japan's most sparsely populated prefectures, such as Shimane, he predicted the number of elementary schools would plunge to a tenth of what it is now.
Tokyo is currently experiencing continued growth in its population of children. But Nemoto projected that the number of public elementary schools in the capital would shrink by about half.
Nemoto says that consolidation of public schools is necessary as Japan's population declines.
He says that schools can continue to serve as centers for their communities if they are built alongside other public facilities for all ages, such as libraries, childcare and nursing facilities.
Nemoto says the future of schools is a problem that will affect everyone in Japan.
