TOKYO - Quantum computing is beginning to attract attention as the next major investment theme following the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, with growing interest reflected not only in technology circles but also among individual investors attending seminars and market briefings.
While AI-related stocks, data centers and software platforms remain on a long-term growth path, some market watchers say enthusiasm for the sector has reached a point of saturation, prompting investors to look ahead to what may come next. Increasingly, questions are being raised about quantum computing, a technology expected to tackle complex calculations that are difficult or impossible for conventional computers.
Quantum computers differ fundamentally from traditional machines, which process information using binary bits of 0 or 1. Quantum systems use quantum bits, or qubits, that can exist in multiple states simultaneously, theoretically allowing far more information to be processed at once. Although the concept is difficult to grasp even for specialists, the basic promise is clear: significantly enhanced computing power for certain classes of problems.
The technology is expected to have applications in areas such as drug discovery, climate modeling, financial analysis and optimization problems, and could also complement the development of AI. However, the field remains technically challenging, with issues such as quantum instability and the need for extreme temperature control still limiting broader adoption.
There are also distinct approaches within quantum computing. One is the quantum gate model, often viewed as an extension of conventional computers with dramatically increased performance. This approach is being pursued by major technology companies such as IBM and Google. Another is the quantum annealing model, which is more specialized and focuses on solving optimization problems, including logistics and portfolio allocation. Companies such as D-Wave Quantum and Japan’s Fixstars are known for their strengths in this area.
Understanding these differences is critical for investors, as companies specializing in one approach may not benefit from progress in the other. Despite the shared label of quantum computing, business models and technological hurdles vary widely.
Stock prices of some quantum-related firms have already surged sharply over the past year, in some cases rising more than tenfold. Such moves, however, come with extreme volatility, reflecting high expectations followed by periodic reassessments of how close the technology is to generating stable revenue.
Market analysts caution that quantum computing, like AI before it, may require a long development cycle before commercialization leads to sustained profits. AI itself went through repeated boom-and-bust phases over more than a decade before achieving today’s level of monetization.
Even so, experts widely agree that quantum computing will not fade away. From a theoretical standpoint, it is seen as an inevitable direction for further advances in computing power, even if practical, large-scale use remains years away. For investors, the message is not to chase short-term gains, but to recognize quantum computing as a long-term theme that may shape the next era of technology-driven growth.
Source: テレ東BIZ
