Japan's population projected to shrink 30 percent to 87 million in 2070

Apr 28, 2023 | News On Japan

Apr 28, 2023 (Japan Today) - Japan's population is expected to fall to 87 million by 2070, shrinking 30 percent from 2020, a government estimate showed Wednesday, highlighting the country's need to overhaul its social security systems and restructure its urban communities.

Foreign residents, including students and workers residing in Japan for more than three months, are set to comprise 10.8 percent of the population at 9.39 million in 2070, expanding from 2.2 percent in 2020.

The National Institute of Population and Security Research said those aged 65 or above in Japan are projected to hit 33.67 million in 2070 after peaking at 39.53 million in 2043. In 2070, they will comprise 38.7 percent of the population, resulting in ballooning social security costs.

The health ministry's research body provides 50-year demographic forecasts approximately every five years based on public data such as censuses. The government will use the latest data to calculate the country's future pension payouts.

The population, numbering 126.15 million as of 2020, is expected to fall under the 100 million threshold in 2056, it said.

The projected fertility rate, or the expected number of children born per woman during her child-bearing years, was at 1.36 for 2070, slightly up from 1.33 in 2020 but remaining well below the threshold of 2.07 for maintaining the population. ...continue reading

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