Inside Suntory’s Intelligence Unit

The United States and Israel launched military attacks on Iran on February 28, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments. The disruption has pushed up energy prices and raised concerns about broader inflationary pressure on the Japanese economy.

The Nikkei Stock Average at one point fell by more than 1,500 yen on March 2 as investors reacted to the conflict. Japan depends on the Middle East for more than 90% of its crude oil imports, leaving companies and households particularly exposed to disruptions in the region.

On March 12, major chemical manufacturer Kureha raised selling prices for resins used in plastics, citing a surge in the price of naphtha, a petroleum product created during crude oil refining. In April, orders for some unit bathrooms for residential use were temporarily suspended as supplies of naphtha-derived solvents began to run short.

Against this backdrop, Suntory moved early to gather information and limit the impact on its operations.

The beverage group, which recorded overseas sales accounting for 49% of its total in 2025, established its Intelligence Promotion Division in 2023 to strengthen the collection and analysis of information from Japan and abroad. Such a dedicated intelligence function remains unusual among Japanese manufacturers.

Suntory generates annual sales of about 3.4 trillion yen, with nearly half coming from overseas. Developments including U.S. tariff policy and escalating tensions in the Middle East therefore have a direct bearing on its business.

The intelligence division is headed by executive officer Go Eguchi, a former Mitsubishi Corporation employee who spent about 20 years on overseas assignments, primarily in research-related positions. While stationed in Washington, he attended the signing of a Japan-U.S. trade agreement as a representative of Japanese businesses.

After returning to Japan, Eguchi was recruited by Suntory, which was preparing to establish an intelligence operation, and placed in charge of the new division.

"Our role is to develop plausible scenarios as Plan A, Plan B and Plan C, consider what the world would look like under each situation, and identify what preparations can be made now," Eguchi said. "Our expertise lies in determining how to provide information that supports decisions by the company’s top management."

In late March, Eguchi invited several prominent international figures to discuss the outlook for Iran and the wider Middle East.

Among them was Matt Pottinger, who served as deputy national security adviser during the first administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. Suntory sought the views of a former Trump adviser with direct knowledge of U.S. foreign and security policy.

Later that day, Eguchi also met Michael Clacey, a former British diplomat who served as a political adviser to a foreign secretary, and Bill Emmott, a former editor-in-chief of The Economist who also served as the magazine’s Tokyo bureau chief.

The discussions were part of Suntory’s effort to obtain information beyond publicly available reporting and develop scenarios for how the conflict could affect markets, trade and the company’s supply network.

One of the most pressing concerns was the procurement of resin used to manufacture plastic beverage bottles. Suntory uses more than 6 billion plastic bottles a year, making the stability and cost of resin supplies a major operational issue.

The resin is produced from naphtha through a series of chemical reactions. Suntory obtains about 60% of its resin requirements through recycling in Japan and imports the remaining 40%.

Nearly all of the imported portion is made from naphtha refined from Middle Eastern crude oil. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could therefore disrupt supplies or cause resin prices to rise sharply.

As a two-week ceasefire deadline approached, Eguchi held discussions with Fujiwara, Suntory’s head of supply chains and the executive responsible for procuring product ingredients and materials.

"The greatest concern is that we do not know what will happen if disruption occurs in the supply chain for that 40%," Fujiwara said.

He asked Eguchi’s team to continue obtaining current information from the region, including details about conditions on the ground and the status of negotiations. The central question was how long the closure of the strait would continue.

"No matter what the circumstances, I believe there is always a path forward," Eguchi said. "I want to use information to help lead the company toward finding that path."

The United States and Iran agreed on April 7 to a two-week ceasefire, with Pakistan acting as an intermediary and talks held in an effort to end the fighting. The discussions, however, failed to produce a clear resolution.

With two days remaining before the ceasefire deadline, Eguchi traveled to New York to gather information directly from people at the center of U.S. political and economic affairs.

He said face-to-face meetings were essential because participants do not always express their true views during remote conferences or telephone calls.

"There are things that can only be understood by meeting someone in person," Eguchi said. "You can assess their manner, the weight of their words and even their expression after the conversation has ended."

On April 20, one day before the ceasefire was due to expire, Suntory’s Intelligence Promotion Division hosted a meeting in New York as it sought to determine the likely course of the conflict and the risks facing the company.

The division’s work reflects the growing importance of corporate intelligence as global businesses confront military conflicts, tariffs, supply disruptions and rapidly changing geopolitical conditions.

For Suntory, the objective is not simply to predict events, but to prepare management for several possible outcomes and identify measures that can preserve stable operations before a crisis reaches the company’s factories, suppliers and customers.

Source: テレ東BIZ