TOKYO - Bitcoin's trajectory is showing promising signs of significant growth, with projections suggesting a possible 50% price increase by March, as its correlation with gold diminishes.
Notably, Bitcoin's 52-week correlation with gold has hit zero for the first time since mid-2022 and could turn negative by the end of January. Historically, such divergences have preceded notable Bitcoin rallies.
Insights from market trends and cycle patterns indicate Bitcoin could reach a price range of $144,000 to $150,000. Historically, when Bitcoin's correlation with gold turns negative, strong rallies have often followed. In four similar past instances, Bitcoin saw an average price increase of 56% within about two months of this correlation shift.
Despite a deviation from this pattern in May 2021, when external factors such as Tesla's reversal on Bitcoin payments and China's crackdown on cryptocurrency disrupted the market, the current outlook is bullish. This optimism is fueled by macroeconomic trends, including an increase in global liquidity as measured by the global M2 supply, and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening.
Matt Hougan from Bitwise Asset Management highlights that Bitcoin bull markets typically coincide with periods of rising global liquidity. With the initiation of a new monetary easing cycle globally and the Fed's QT program ending, Hougan anticipates continued growth in Bitcoin's price into 2026.
In the past, under comparable macroeconomic conditions, gold experienced a 65% surge in 2025 while Bitcoin's gains were minimal. However, Hougan expects Bitcoin to outpace gold by 2026, due to their only slightly positive long-term correlation, which he suggests could enhance a portfolio's risk-adjusted returns.
Analyst Tuur Demeester supports this view, citing increased money printing as a significant advantage for Bitcoin. The current setup seems to mirror the 2020-2021 bull cycle, where a 56% rally would propel Bitcoin to the $144,000-150,000 range.
Crypto analyst Midas draws parallels between Bitcoin's current market structure and its cycle from 2020-2021. He notes that Bitcoin has completed a lengthy downtrend, followed by a multi-month accumulation phase, setting the stage for a breakout similar to the one that led to its previous peak near $70,000.
As Bitcoin transitions from accumulation into a pre-parabolic phase, the stage appears set for a significant price surge, potentially targeting $150,000 if the current fractal pattern persists. This analysis suggests Bitcoin may indeed be on the verge of a substantial rally, aligning with historical patterns and current macroeconomic conditions.
