Bitcoin's Decoupling from Gold Hints at Substantial Price Surge by March

Jan 15, 2026 | News On Japan

TOKYO - Bitcoin's trajectory is showing promising signs of significant growth, with projections suggesting a possible 50% price increase by March, as its correlation with gold diminishes.

Notably, Bitcoin's 52-week correlation with gold has hit zero for the first time since mid-2022 and could turn negative by the end of January. Historically, such divergences have preceded notable Bitcoin rallies.

Insights from market trends and cycle patterns indicate Bitcoin could reach a price range of $144,000 to $150,000. Historically, when Bitcoin's correlation with gold turns negative, strong rallies have often followed. In four similar past instances, Bitcoin saw an average price increase of 56% within about two months of this correlation shift.

Despite a deviation from this pattern in May 2021, when external factors such as Tesla's reversal on Bitcoin payments and China's crackdown on cryptocurrency disrupted the market, the current outlook is bullish. This optimism is fueled by macroeconomic trends, including an increase in global liquidity as measured by the global M2 supply, and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening.

Matt Hougan from Bitwise Asset Management highlights that Bitcoin bull markets typically coincide with periods of rising global liquidity. With the initiation of a new monetary easing cycle globally and the Fed's QT program ending, Hougan anticipates continued growth in Bitcoin's price into 2026.

In the past, under comparable macroeconomic conditions, gold experienced a 65% surge in 2025 while Bitcoin's gains were minimal. However, Hougan expects Bitcoin to outpace gold by 2026, due to their only slightly positive long-term correlation, which he suggests could enhance a portfolio's risk-adjusted returns.

Analyst Tuur Demeester supports this view, citing increased money printing as a significant advantage for Bitcoin. The current setup seems to mirror the 2020-2021 bull cycle, where a 56% rally would propel Bitcoin to the $144,000-150,000 range.

Crypto analyst Midas draws parallels between Bitcoin's current market structure and its cycle from 2020-2021. He notes that Bitcoin has completed a lengthy downtrend, followed by a multi-month accumulation phase, setting the stage for a breakout similar to the one that led to its previous peak near $70,000.

As Bitcoin transitions from accumulation into a pre-parabolic phase, the stage appears set for a significant price surge, potentially targeting $150,000 if the current fractal pattern persists. This analysis suggests Bitcoin may indeed be on the verge of a substantial rally, aligning with historical patterns and current macroeconomic conditions.

Players to Watch When Japan Faces the Netherlands

Japan's World Cup campaign begins on June 14 when the Samurai Blue face the Netherlands at Dallas Stadium in Texas, a clash that will showcase some of the game's most talented players and pit two ambitious teams against one another in a crucial Group F opener. While Japan arrives without injured winger Kaoru Mitoma, one of its most recognizable stars, the squad still boasts a wealth of talent drawn from Europe's top leagues.

El Nino Returns, But Japan Faces Another Hot Summer

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) announced that an El Niño phenomenon is believed to have developed this spring, warning that Japan is likely to experience above-average temperatures nationwide this summer despite the climate pattern's traditional association with cooler summers.

Narita Airport Advances Compulsory Land Acquisition for Runway

Narita International Airport Corporation is expected to announce next month that it will apply to the national government for project certification as part of the process to enable compulsory land acquisition for the construction of a new runway at Narita Airport, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Fire Destroys Historic Arima Inari Shrine

A fire broke out at Arima Inari Shrine near the Arima Onsen hot spring resort area in Kobe on the night of June 9th, destroying multiple buildings and leaving an elderly Shinto priest and his wife with minor injuries.

Japan National Team Holds First Training Session in Nashville

Japan's national soccer team arrived in Nashville, Tennessee, on June 8th from Monterrey, Mexico, where it had been conducting a pre-World Cup training camp, and held its first practice session at its base camp for the FIFA World Cup in North America.

MEDIA CHANNELS

MORE Business NEWS

Will There Be Another Currency Intervention to Boost Weak Yen?

The Bank of Japan is set to raise its policy interest rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at its monetary policy meeting on June 15th and 16th, a move that could mark another step in the central bank's gradual shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy as inflation remains elevated and the yen continues to weaken.

IT Infrastructure Management Solutions for Businesses in Japan

The contemporary corporate field across Japan is undergoing a profound digital transformation as forward-thinking organizations strive to maintain their market competitiveness in a globalized economy.

Japan Producer Prices Rise 6.3% to Highest Level in Over Three Years

Japan's corporate goods prices rose 6.3% in May from a year earlier, marking the fastest pace of increase in more than three years as higher oil and petrochemical costs linked to tensions in the Middle East pushed up wholesale prices.

Bank of Japan Poised to Raise Rates to 1.0% as Inflation Risks Mount

The Bank of Japan is increasingly expected to raise its policy interest rate to 1.0% at next week's monetary policy meeting, responding to growing concerns that inflation could rise faster than previously anticipated due to soaring oil prices and other cost pressures.

Japan's Restaurants Struggle Under Inflation and Labor Shortages

The number of restaurant bankruptcies in Japan reached a record high for the January–May period, highlighting mounting pressures from rising costs, labor shortages, and increasingly cautious consumer spending.

Inside Casio’s Secret Project to Revive Its Manufacturing Spirit

Casio Computer, the company behind some of Japan’s most iconic consumer electronics including calculators, digital cameras, electronic musical instruments, and the G-SHOCK watch, is pursuing a new strategy aimed at reviving its tradition of product innovation.

Nippon Steel to Invest 400 Billion Yen in U.S. Steel Plant Expansion

Nippon Steel plans to invest up to $2.5 billion, or approximately 400 billion yen, over the next three years in the Mon Valley Works steel complex in Pennsylvania, one of the key facilities operated by U.S. Steel, the American steelmaker it acquired in 2025.

Japan Revises Q1 GDP Growth Down to 1.8% on Weak Capital Investment

Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the January–March quarter of 2026, according to revised gross domestic product (GDP) data released by the Cabinet Office, with the figure marked down from the preliminary estimate due largely to weaker-than-expected capital investment.

< 2 3 4 5 >