TOKYO - TOTO has suspended new orders for some unit bath systems due to difficulties securing petroleum-based materials, highlighting how prolonged high crude oil prices are beginning to disrupt supply chains and feed into broader inflation risks in Japan.
The suspension applies to integrated bathroom units that combine multiple components, including walls and ventilation systems, while existing orders will continue to be fulfilled. The company will still accept orders for standalone toilet units, suggesting the disruption is concentrated in products that rely heavily on naphtha-derived materials such as adhesives and interior films.
These developments come as tensions between the United States and Iran remain unresolved, with former President Donald Trump moving toward a “reverse blockade” of the Strait of Hormuz, keeping crude oil prices elevated and raising concerns about prolonged supply instability.
The effects are spreading beyond a single sector. Major manufacturers have begun halting orders or delaying deliveries for construction-related products, with similar issues reported for plastic-based materials used in packaging, shopping bags, and food containers. The common factor is naphtha, a key petroleum derivative used across a wide range of industrial and consumer goods.
Crude oil prices are currently hovering in the high 90-dollar range per barrel, compared with around 65 to 67 dollars in 2025, marking an increase of roughly 40%. According to Kumano Hideo, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, the situation presents a dual challenge of rising costs and potential supply disruptions, both of which weigh on Japan’s economy.
While general-purpose plastics remain relatively stable in supply, certain materials are already becoming difficult to obtain. Kumano notes that shortages in specific products, such as some types of paint, point to bottlenecks forming within supply chains that could begin to affect broader production systems.
Recent data shows consumer prices in Tokyo rose 1.7% in mid-March, slightly easing from earlier levels. However, the corporate goods price index has risen sharply, indicating that cost increases are building upstream and are likely to be passed on to consumers in the coming months.
Kumano expects a delayed impact on consumer prices, forecasting that inflation could exceed 2% again from around May and approach the upper 2% range by the end of the year if oil prices remain at current levels.
The economic impact is estimated to reduce GDP by between 0.25% and 0.5%, although current projections do not point to a full-scale downturn. Government fiscal measures, including income support and tax adjustments, are expected to help sustain demand and prevent a deeper slowdown.
To counter rising fuel costs, the government has introduced subsidies to keep gasoline prices at around 170 yen per liter, currently providing support of about 48.8 yen per liter. While this offers short-term relief—equivalent to roughly 1,500 yen for a 30-liter fill—questions remain over the long-term sustainability of the policy.
Kumano argues that gasoline accounts for only around 2% of total consumption, yet receives substantial financial support, and warns that the subsidies may encourage consumption at a time when supply constraints call for restraint.
With supply disruptions spreading and cost pressures building, attention is turning to whether Japan’s current measures are sufficient to manage inflation without distorting demand, as policymakers weigh how best to respond to a prolonged period of elevated energy prices.
Source: テレ東BIZ
