TOKYO - Condominium prices show little sign of cooling as even secondhand units in central Tokyo are routinely listed above 100 million yen, with a recent survey indicating the average price of new condominiums launched in the 23 wards in the first half of this fiscal year reached about 133.09 million yen and resale units have exceeded 100 million yen for five consecutive months, underscoring a market in which construction and labor costs have jumped, demand has spilled over into used stock, and buyers are being urged to scrutinize properties more carefully.
An example near Odakyu Line’s Umegaoka Station illustrates the shift: a 9-year-old 3LDK in a quiet residential block—with a 13.3-tatami living room, one 4.5-tatami room and two 6-tatami rooms—was presented as “like new” despite no renovation and priced around 112.8 million yen, while a similar unit one floor up was offered roughly 10 million yen higher. An agent attributed the escalation to rising material and labor costs pushing up new-build prices and funneling shoppers into the resale market.
Specialists, however, caution that polished interiors can hide costly problems. A licensed housing inspector noted that superficial refreshes and low-budget renovations can mask wear and defects, especially around water areas. Under-sink cabinetry and storage often show unnoticed moisture, while aging steel supply pipes may corrode and leak, potentially damaging lower floors. Mold concealed behind newly applied wallpaper is another risk. Buyers are advised to request “before” photos, detailed work records and repair invoices from sellers and contractors, and to physically check damp-prone spots by hand.
As prices climb, housing choices are diversifying. In Chiba City, a seniors-focused condominium complex completed in 2010 spans a site roughly equivalent to three Tokyo Domes with seven buildings and more than 900 residents. A couple who sold a previous home purchased a 70-square-meter 1LDK there 13 years ago for about 25 million yen and now enjoy on-site activities—ukulele, hula dance and more—along with daily meal service. The activity-plus-meal plan runs about 110,000 yen per person per month, and residents say the social contact “keeps the brain active.”
A studio discussion with real estate journalist Yamashita explored five common claims about today’s market. On whether prices will keep rising, Yamashita said “yes—for now”—despite widespread expectations of a peak, noting continued momentum in headline averages. On whether renting can be cheaper than buying, he again answered yes, arguing that with new urban units hitting 200 million yen in some cases, even so-called “power couples” may find ownership burdensome compared with flexible leases. He advised against chasing newly built detached houses in distant suburbs, saying land-rich but car-dependent locations face uncertain resale prospects. The notion that “buying and staying longer always pays” also drew a no, with Yamashita stressing that location and liquidity matter more than tenure. Finally, he said a condominium bubble will “inevitably” burst over a long horizon, citing structural headwinds such as population decline and heavy public debt.
Foreign demand, he added, is concentrated in a narrow slice of high-end, high-liquidity areas—parts of Minato Ward and Bancho in Chiyoda Ward, and resort markets like Niseko, Nozawa Onsen and Hakuba—where the weaker yen has made assets look cheaper to overseas buyers; by contrast, much of the broader market is softer, and households who buy far from stations risk future depreciation. For resale value, he repeatedly emphasized proximity to rail hubs.
Affordability metrics underline the strain: in 2023 the average new condominium price in Tokyo was described as a little over 100 million yen against an average annual income near 5.9 million yen—an income multiple around the high-teens—while the national average exceeded 10 times income for the first time on record and only a handful of prefectures hovered closer to 6–7 times. Yamashita argued that, given demographics, seniors will find it increasingly easy to rent as landlords seek tenants, and he urged urban households to consider “living smaller” near transit and reallocating savings to quality of life.
For buyers who proceed, specialists recommend three guardrails: prioritize station access and established neighborhoods with proven resale liquidity; budget for a third-party inspection focusing on plumbing, moisture and ventilation pathways; and demand documentation for any renovation claim—scope of work, photos and contractor records—before making an offer.
Source: YOMIURI
