TOKYO - Quantum computing is attracting growing attention from investors as governments around the world increase support for the technology, raising expectations that it could become the next major investment theme after artificial intelligence.
The latest catalyst came from the United States, where the Commerce Department announced plans to invest a total of 2 billion dollars, or about 320 billion yen, in nine domestic companies involved in quantum computing and related technologies, including IBM. Financial markets reacted quickly, sending money into quantum-related stocks.
In Japan, the administration of Sanae Takaichi has also designated quantum technology as one of 17 strategic growth sectors, reinforcing expectations that government support could accelerate development and commercialization.
Nobuhiko Shimura, chief strategist at First Partners, said quantum computing represents a fundamentally different approach to solving complex problems that conventional computers struggle to handle.
Traditional computers process information using bits that are either 0 or 1. Quantum computers use quantum bits, or qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously. This allows certain calculations to be performed far more efficiently than with conventional computing systems.
According to Shimura, problems that would take traditional supercomputers thousands or even millions of years to solve could potentially be processed in dramatically shorter periods using advanced quantum systems.
The technology is expected to be particularly valuable in optimization, simulation, logistics, cybersecurity, finance and national security. Both governments and private companies are therefore investing heavily in the field.
Shimura emphasized that quantum computing should not be viewed as a competitor to artificial intelligence but rather as a complementary technology.
AI is already being used to improve cybersecurity, financial services and countless business processes. Quantum computers could eventually tackle computational problems that remain beyond the capabilities of today's AI systems. At the same time, AI is expected to play an important role in advancing quantum computing itself by helping improve error correction and system stability, two major challenges facing the industry.
As a result, AI and quantum computing are increasingly seen as mutually supportive technologies that may evolve together over the coming decades.
The industry is currently pursuing several competing technological approaches.
IBM, Google and Japan's Fujitsu are among the companies developing superconducting quantum computers, which require extremely low temperatures to maintain stable quantum states.
Another approach, known as ion-trap quantum computing, is being developed by companies such as IonQ. The technology uses electrically charged atoms to perform quantum calculations.
D-Wave, meanwhile, specializes in quantum annealing, a method particularly suited to optimization problems such as logistics routing, telecommunications network management and workforce allocation.
Japan's NTT is focusing on photonic quantum computing, which uses light particles rather than superconducting circuits or trapped ions. Investors are paying close attention to how photonic technologies could be integrated with optical communications and next-generation computing infrastructure.
Despite rapid advances, no clear winner has emerged among the competing technologies.
Shimura said investors should focus less on the technical differences between quantum architectures and more on which companies are establishing leadership positions within their chosen fields.
At this stage, he argued, the most important investment thesis is not necessarily identifying a single winner but recognizing that the quantum computing industry as a whole could experience substantial growth in the years ahead.
Among the emerging players, IonQ has drawn considerable attention. The company reported revenue growth of roughly 7.5 times year-on-year, but Shimura said an even more important indicator is the growth of its order backlog, which reflects future demand.
He noted that the U.S. government is increasingly emphasizing domestic supply chains for advanced technologies, from design to manufacturing, and that IonQ has been pursuing acquisitions to strengthen its position within that ecosystem.
D-Wave has gained an early commercial advantage by offering practical optimization services that are relatively easy for businesses to understand and adopt. The company is also expanding beyond quantum annealing through acquisitions aimed at developing gate-based quantum technologies.
Rigetti Computing, another widely watched quantum company, focuses on superconducting quantum systems. While its technology remains promising, Shimura said it currently trails companies such as IonQ and D-Wave in terms of commercialization and revenue generation.
In Japan, investors are paying particular attention to Fujitsu, RIKEN and NTT.
Fujitsu has announced plans to invest on a massive scale in quantum computing development and is pursuing superconducting technologies while exploring integration with supercomputers. The company operates in one of the most active areas of global quantum research.
NTT, meanwhile, is leveraging Japan's strengths in optical communications and photonics. Its work on photonic quantum computing and quantum networking is attracting long-term interest from investors and researchers.
Other Japanese companies are also benefiting from the trend. Fixstars has developed cloud services utilizing quantum computing technologies, while Hamamatsu Photonics supplies advanced cameras and optical components used in quantum research and development.
Shimura noted that many quantum-related businesses still contribute only a small portion of overall corporate revenue, making valuation difficult. However, because many companies remain underfollowed by analysts, investors are continuing to reassess their long-term potential.
Hamamatsu Photonics has already enjoyed strong share-price gains linked to AI-related demand, and investors are now evaluating how much additional growth could come from quantum computing applications.
As for commercialization timelines, Shimura said some quantum technologies are already being used by corporations and government agencies.
D-Wave systems, for example, have been adopted by organizations including NASA and defense contractor Lockheed Martin for specific optimization tasks.
More advanced systems, particularly those based on ion-trap architectures, are expected to require several more years of development before reaching broader practical deployment.
For now, governments, research institutions and corporations continue to make significant upfront investments, betting that quantum computing will eventually transform industries ranging from finance and logistics to healthcare and national defense.
With government funding increasing, corporate investment accelerating and market enthusiasm building, quantum computing is increasingly being viewed as a potential successor to AI as the next major strategic investment theme.
Source: テレ東BIZ
