TOKYO - The number of Tokyo University students pursuing careers as government bureaucrats is declining, even as rising wages in skilled trades and shifts driven by artificial intelligence are reshaping perceptions of high-paying jobs.
Tokyo University held its entrance ceremony on April 13th, with new students beginning their academic journeys amid changing views on career paths.
While the university has long been associated with producing large numbers of elite bureaucrats, the trend appears to be weakening. The number of Tokyo University graduates passing the national civil service exam for elite administrative positions has steadily declined, falling from 560 in fiscal 2015, or about 30% of successful candidates, to 338 in fiscal 2025, roughly 15%.
Instead, many students are now opting for careers in consulting, trading companies, and finance. According to a survey by the University of Tokyo Newspaper, top destinations for 2024 graduates included consulting firms such as Accenture, EY Strategy and Consulting, and McKinsey & Company, as well as trading houses like Mitsubishi Corp. and Mitsui & Co., and financial institutions including Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.
Salary considerations are increasingly influencing career decisions, and similar shifts are being observed overseas. In the United States, the term “blue-collar billionaires” has gained attention, referring to highly skilled manual workers who earn exceptionally high incomes.
The term “blue-collar” originates from the blue work uniforms traditionally worn by manual laborers, while “white-collar” refers to office workers in white shirts. Advances in AI have begun to reduce demand and wage growth in some white-collar professions, such as legal and engineering roles, making it harder for workers in those fields to see income increases.
In contrast, skilled trades such as plumbing and air-conditioning repair are seeing rising demand, with some workers earning more than their white-collar counterparts. These high-earning tradespeople are increasingly being referred to as “blue-collar billionaires.”
Similar signs are emerging in Japan, where certain manual occupations are experiencing faster income growth. Data from Recruit Works Institute shows that average annual earnings for taxi drivers rose from approximately 3 million yen in 2020 to about 4.15 million yen in 2024, a 38.3% increase. Carpenters and construction workers saw earnings rise from roughly 3.74 million yen to 4.92 million yen over the same period, an increase of 31.7%.
By comparison, administrative and human resources roles saw more modest growth, rising from around 4.23 million yen to 4.69 million yen, an 11% increase. Planning and product development roles also posted smaller gains, increasing from approximately 5.76 million yen to 6.3 million yen, or 9.4%.
Makiko Nakamuro, an education economist, noted that the relationship between technological progress and wages has long been studied in economics. Research by MIT labor economist David Autor suggests that technological advances do not uniformly eliminate jobs, but instead affect occupations differently.
Some roles are replaced by technology, while others are complemented by it, leading to higher productivity and wages. Professions such as doctors and engineers, for example, may benefit from generative AI by becoming more efficient and increasing their earning potential.
Nakamuro emphasized that workers who can engage in roles that complement new technologies, rather than being replaced by them, are more likely to generate value and secure higher incomes in the evolving labor market.
Source: TBS
